▪️ Follow Through Day – Part Four: Oversold Stage 4 Stocks Attempt to Rebound
▪️ US stocks watchlist stocks
▪️ Market Breadth: Bullish Percent Index
▪️ Effective Volume
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isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Commodities, breadth?
I have a GBP denominated commodities ETF in my ISA which seems to be going sideways, so I thought I'd take a look at the market breadth of commodities. I've calculated the market breadth on a pool of commodities, excluding oil and precious metals, which seem to be significant enough to track separately.
The index itself [1] is making a bull flag / pennant shape. This is not exactly what my poision in BOCG.L is doing, it does not have the same tightening of volatility, it is just going sideways:
However, we need to note most commodity data is priced in USD, the USD dollar index has fallen and the pound has strengthened against the dollar. Do, if commodities are priced in USD and their price remains unchanged and the pound rises against the dollar we would expect BCOG.L to fall:
So, if GBP / USD was fixed BCOG.L would probally be rising.
Lets look at the market breadth again. New highs minus New lows are lower than they have been [3]. Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] are both above zero but have been falling. The % stocks above the 50 and 200 day EMAs have dipped in the last week or two but recovered somewhat. On a more negative note the Silver Cross Index (% of 'stocks' with a 20 day EMA over a 50 day EMA are falling but in the last week or two have stabilized just above 50% and the Gold Cross Index has turned down a little. Looking at my agregate scoring system [B, grey] the score has been falling.
In summary, breadth of the commodities (ex precious metals and oil & gas producers) appears to have weakened somewhat. If that means inflation is falling that is good for everyone. Something to watch.
(This post was last modified: 2022-05-28, 04:46 PM by pcabc.)
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 v Russell 3000
A strengthening in price [1] and also breadth over the last few days. However, if this is a bottom then:
1. Resistance at about 4125 needs to be broken through.
2. The falling resistance trend line needs to be broken through.
The various McClellan momentum and ossiclator plots are rising [7-10] and the % stocks above their 20 day EMAs has spiked t 70%. The Weinstein Momentum and 1% A/D have also turned up but are below zero [5 & 6]. The Silver Cross Index has flattened and is just below 30% but the Gold Cross Index is still falling below its 20 day EMA [14 & 15]. So it seems there is a definite shorter term increase in strength, but longer term it is still weak, this could be a bull trap rather than a bottom. I suspect we are seeing a re-run of the mid March rally.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Gold &Silver
Gold has a risking line of support and looks like it is in a pullback. Friday's spike in price might be the start f a climb out of that. However, the breadth in the chart, which is the breadth for the gold miners, is weak.
For silver the price itself is on a declining trend, do is weaker than gold. Breadth in the miners is pretty poor.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 versus Russell 3000 breadth
Pretty much all breadth measures are headed downwards. The one exception is the Silver Cross Index [14] which is just about above its 10 day EMA. However, that is a single indicator.
