RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 v Russell 3000
We may be experiencing a short term bounce [1] with a number of indicators, on very short timescales pointing up [3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12 & 13 ] but this is a very short term thing against a longer downtrend. The 150 day SMA of the S&P500 [1] is now sloping down, if the lower highs and lows had not already given you a hint. The Weinstein Momentum [2] and !% A/D [3] are still both below their zero lines and the Silver and Gold Cross Indicies [14 & 15] are still headed downwards despite a short term strengthening in the % stocks above their 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs [11, 12 & 13].
I've added back in my very short, short, medium and long term scores, the last two rows on the chart, currently unlabelled. Even if their precise construction is my own I think they give a good overview of what the scores are, better than just looking at individual indicators.
Basically, there is some short term strengthening, but things remain weak.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
US Sectors
I thought I would plot the US sectors to give an overview of where they lie. In short, everything but Consumer Staples, Energy and Utilities is deeply in Stage 4 except Healthcare and Materials which looks like they are in Stage 3 but may roll into Stage 4.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Cryptos
I don't think it is possible to have more negative breadth than we see here? All the cryptos in the basket I use to measure breadth are below all there averages, there a a huge number of 1Y lows etc. THe challenge comes, how many of the cryptos in the basket I use to measure breadth will be dead? If so do I take them out the basket or leave them?
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Gold versus Gold Miners:
Gold appears to be making a sort of rounding bottom - red. The blue resistance line seems to have turned to support, except, if you soom in, its just been broken. So is this a buy on the pullback sign, or is this breaking of support more than just a glitch?
Breadth of the gold producer is basically tanking, as seen on the % stocks above various EMAs, the Silver and Gold Cross Indices.
So it is not a surprise that I got stopped out my gold producers ETF recently.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Indicators of an approaching Stage 4?
Looking at my recently posted breadth charts it looks like there are some consistent warnings for a coming Stage 4 in the index:
1. Cumulative New Highs - New Lows is breaking below its 100 day SMA.
2. The Weinstein Momentum and 1% A/D lines have descended below their zero lines.
3. The Gold Cross Index Crosses below its 50% level and is below its 20 day EMA (the % stocks above their 200 day EMAs might be substituted for this one).
To me these make sense and rely on different parameters, New High and New Low data, Advance / Decline data and the number of Gold Crosses. It seems logical that it would be hard for an index to remain in Stage 2 or 3 for long if the above conditions are met.
Here's the links to a few of this weekends posts in the Stage Analysis blog:
US Stocks Industry Groups Relative Strength Rankings
The purpose of the Relative Strength (RS) tables is to track the short, medium and long term RS changes of the individual groups to find the new leadership earlier than the crowd...
Sector Breadth: Percentage of US Stocks Above Their 150 day (30 Week) Moving Averages
The majority of sectors have now fallen into the lower zone – which we haven't seen on the sector breadth visual since March 2020. So it's reached an extreme. But unlike the March 2020 visual, the current market still has a few sectors in the mid and upper zones, as Energy remains at very high level of 80.24%...
US Stocks Watchlist – 15 May 2022
Friday saw a large amount of strong moves in the more beaten down areas of the market, with short covering type moves on volume in numerous stocks. Which reversed the Bullish Percent Index column to Xs in the majority of the Software IBD subgroups and Semiconductor groups in the lower zone, and hence changes their P&F status to Bull Alert...
