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Market Breadth

“If I could impress on you one fact, it would be that at least 75 percent of the risk in any stock is associated with the market and sector. If the overall market is not supporting higher prices, very few stocks you own, if any, will do well.”
Thomas J. Dorsey – Point and Figure Charting

Being able to identify the four Stages visually on individual stock charts is a crucial skill when using the Stage Analysis method. However, the major stock market index charts, such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq 100, are all just averages of the stocks within them, and are also distorted by the weighting of stocks.

For example, currently the top 10 stocks in the Nasdaq 100, make up 54% of the weighting. So over half of the Nasdaq 100s price action is determined by just 10% of the stocks. Therefore, you could have a scenario where 90% of stocks in the index are in Stage 4 declines, but the index chart could still look reasonably healthy in Stage 2, as the top 10 stocks are still in Stage 2 advances and holding the index up.

This is where market breadth indicators come into play. As they give you an unbiased look at what’s really going on under the surface of the stock market, and so can help you to determine the actual Stage that the market index is in.

There are many different data sources that you can use to get market breadth information, and each have their own strengths and weaknesses. But in the Stage Analysis method, no market breadth information is used in isolation. Instead, we use what is known as the Weight of Evidence approach, where all of the different market breadth information is combined to determine the overall strategy that should be used, and so can help you to determine whether you should be using a more cautious strategy or a more aggressive one.

Stan Weinstein was famous for using over 50 different indicators to determine the Weight of Evidence. But retail investors shouldn’t be put off, as you can achieve a similar effect by using a much smaller, core set of market breadth indicators, to create your own Weight of Evidence.

Major Commodities and Market Breadth Update

Golds brief move into Stage 2 in February and March looks to have failed with it moving strongly back into the previous Stage 1 base and through two support levels, and looks to have formed potential UTAD and Test events, which could shift the interpretation of the broader base structure from an Stage 1 accumulation structure to still being in a Stage 3 distributional structure...
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Stage 4 Decline Accelerates in the US Stock Market

It was another day of heavy declines in the US stock market from the open, which further deteriorated into the later part of the trading day, as the major large indexes, such as the S&P 500 finally broke down more convincingly below the lows that it had been clinging onto, and hence now is more clearly in Stage 4 on the chart...
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Stage Analysis Members Weekend Video – 8 May 2022 (1hr 29mins)

This weekends Stage Analysis Members Video features analysis of the multiple Stage 2 breakouts and significant bars. Market analysis of the major indexes, US Industry Groups Relative Strength tables. The market breadth update to help to determine the weight of evidence. US stocks watchlist and finally a look at some of the most interesting stocks with earnings this coming week.
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Stage Analysis Members Midweek Video – 4 May 2022 (57mins)

Stage Analysis Members Midweek Video with a FREE preview talking through the recent Spring Type Action in the Major Indexes and some groups coming into focus. Plus the Members Only Content covering the short term Market Breadth Indicators, Industry Group Themes and the US Watchlist Stocks in detail.
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Fed Decision Impact and the US Stocks Watchlist – 4 May 2022

The Fed decision to raise rates by 0.5% sent the major indexes – such as the large cap S&P 500 index – sharply higher in the final hours of the trading day, and continued the three day move that began with the Spring Attempt on Monday, and is now showing as a potential Change of Character over what we've seen from the previous rally attempts over the last month or so...
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Stage Analysis Members Weekend Video – 1 May 2022 (1hr 22mins)

This weekends Stage Analysis Members Video features analysis of the Major US Stock Market Indexes and ETFs – S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, IBD 50, ARKK, plus the VIX and also a look at the earnings reactions of some of the mega cap stocks that reported over the last week, including GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and more.
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Major Stock Indexes Testing the Stage 4 Breakdown Level

The major US indexes (i.e. the S&P 500, NYSE, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 etc) all closed the week at the lows, after Thursdays bounce attempt was convincingly rejected, and with multiple indexes already in Stage 4, the holdouts have now started to breakdown as well – with the S&P 500 and NYSE both making Stage 4 breakdown attempts at the end of the week. So risk is extremely elevated of the Stage 4 decline accelerating.
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