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Market Breadth

“If I could impress on you one fact, it would be that at least 75 percent of the risk in any stock is associated with the market and sector. If the overall market is not supporting higher prices, very few stocks you own, if any, will do well.”
Thomas J. Dorsey – Point and Figure Charting

Being able to identify the four Stages visually on individual stock charts is a crucial skill when using the Stage Analysis method. However, the major stock market index charts, such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq 100, are all just averages of the stocks within them, and are also distorted by the weighting of stocks.

For example, currently the top 10 stocks in the Nasdaq 100, make up 54% of the weighting. So over half of the Nasdaq 100s price action is determined by just 10% of the stocks. Therefore, you could have a scenario where 90% of stocks in the index are in Stage 4 declines, but the index chart could still look reasonably healthy in Stage 2, as the top 10 stocks are still in Stage 2 advances and holding the index up.

This is where market breadth indicators come into play. As they give you an unbiased look at what’s really going on under the surface of the stock market, and so can help you to determine the actual Stage that the market index is in.

There are many different data sources that you can use to get market breadth information, and each have their own strengths and weaknesses. But in the Stage Analysis method, no market breadth information is used in isolation. Instead, we use what is known as the Weight of Evidence approach, where all of the different market breadth information is combined to determine the overall strategy that should be used, and so can help you to determine whether you should be using a more cautious strategy or a more aggressive one.

Stan Weinstein was famous for using over 50 different indicators to determine the Weight of Evidence. But retail investors shouldn’t be put off, as you can achieve a similar effect by using a much smaller, core set of market breadth indicators, to create your own Weight of Evidence.

PYPL 2hr 5 9 21

Stage Analysis - Members Weekend Video - 5th September 2021

Introduction to Stage Analysis - Members service, Stock Market Overview, Major Indexes & Sectors, Industry Group Relative Strength, Market Breadth Charts (Percentage of stocks above their key MAs, Bullish Percent Indexes, Advance Decline Lines, New High New Lows, Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns, Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA) scoring system and the US Watchlist Stocks in focus - ASAN, MDB, DOCU, CRWD, PYPL and many more...
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US Total Percentage of Stocks Above 50 150 200 day MA Combined 20 years 27 11 20

US Stock Market Breadth Update - 29th November 2020

Potential Major Market Breadth signal that the Bull market is still only just beginning. The 80%+ level has only been reached twice before in June 2003 & August 2009 as you can see attached. So although in the upper risk range. A major sign of strength.
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Market Breadth intro 17 7 20

Is the S&P 500 About to Breakout Into the Stage 2 Advancing Phase? Stock Market Breadth Update

Regular update of the major US stock market indexes and indicators. A regular look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money. 
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