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Market Breadth

“If I could impress on you one fact, it would be that at least 75 percent of the risk in any stock is associated with the market and sector. If the overall market is not supporting higher prices, very few stocks you own, if any, will do well.”
Thomas J. Dorsey – Point and Figure Charting

Being able to identify the four Stages visually on individual stock charts is a crucial skill when using the Stage Analysis method. However, the major stock market index charts, such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq 100, are all just averages of the stocks within them, and are also distorted by the weighting of stocks.

For example, currently the top 10 stocks in the Nasdaq 100, make up 54% of the weighting. So over half of the Nasdaq 100s price action is determined by just 10% of the stocks. Therefore, you could have a scenario where 90% of stocks in the index are in Stage 4 declines, but the index chart could still look reasonably healthy in Stage 2, as the top 10 stocks are still in Stage 2 advances and holding the index up.

This is where market breadth indicators come into play. As they give you an unbiased look at what’s really going on under the surface of the stock market, and so can help you to determine the actual Stage that the market index is in.

There are many different data sources that you can use to get market breadth information, and each have their own strengths and weaknesses. But in the Stage Analysis method, no market breadth information is used in isolation. Instead, we use what is known as the Weight of Evidence approach, where all of the different market breadth information is combined to determine the overall strategy that should be used, and so can help you to determine whether you should be using a more cautious strategy or a more aggressive one.

Stan Weinstein was famous for using over 50 different indicators to determine the Weight of Evidence. But retail investors shouldn’t be put off, as you can achieve a similar effect by using a much smaller, core set of market breadth indicators, to create your own Weight of Evidence.

Stage Analysis Members Video – 29 October 2023 (1hr 3mins)

The Stage Analysis members weekend video begins this week with a detailed look at the market breadth data to help to determine the current weight of evidence, as it's a crucial spect of the Stage Analysis method. Followed by the regular weekend members content including the Major US Indexes, the Futures Charts, Industry Groups Relative Strength (RS) Rankings, IBD Industry Group Bell Curve – Bullish Percent, and US watchlist stocks in detail on multiple timeframes. Plus an update on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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IBD Industry Groups Bell Curve – Bullish Percent

The IBD Industry Groups Bell Curve – Bullish Percent shows the few hundred industry groups plotted as a histogram chart and represents the percentage of stocks in each group that are on a point & figure (P&F) buy signal...
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Group Focus Video: Crypto Coins – 25 October 2023 (37mins)

The Stage Analysis midweek video begins with a group focus on the major crypto coins by market cap as Bitcoin makes a Stage 2 continuation attempt this week. Then analysis of the major US stock market indexes and short-term market breadth and the earnings reactions of the mega caps that have reported this week so far.
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Stage Analysis Members Video – 22 October 2023 (1hr 10mins)

Stage Analysis members weekend video discussing the Major US Indexes, the Futures Charts, Industry Groups Relative Strength (RS) Rankings, IBD Industry Group Bell Curve – Bullish Percent, Market Breadth Update to determine the Weight of Evidence. Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis, and then finally a discussion of the weekends watchlist stocks in detail on multiple timeframes.
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IBD Industry Groups Bell Curve – Bullish Percent

The IBD Industry Groups Bell Curve – Bullish Percent shows the few hundred industry groups plotted as a histogram chart and represents the percentage of stocks in each group that are on a point & figure (P&F) buy signal...
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Software Group Focus Video – 18 October 2023 (55mins)

The Software group remains one of the leading industry groups year to date and has been consolidating / building a base structure in Stage 2 over the last quarter since the previous review as the broader market has also corrected. So with earnings approaching for the majority of the Software group in the coming weeks, it's an ideal time to do review the group again and how its current RS leaders are acting.
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Stage Analysis Members Video – 15 October 2023 (1hr 11mins)

This weekends video begins with analysis of the TSLA and NFLX ahead of their earnings results this week, followed by the Major Indexes Update, Futures SATA Charts, Industry Groups RS Rankings, IBD Industry Group Bell Curve – Bullish Percent, Market Breadth Update to determine the Weight of Evidence, Stage 2 breakouts, and finishing with analysis of the recent watchlist stocks in detail on multiple timeframes.
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