[isatrader]

Question regarding market being in Stage 3. Assuming that you were referring to the US market, I was looking at the chart of SPY. It appeared to me that market is in late of Stage 2. Could you please explain why do you think that market is in Stage 3?

I am referring to the US market. You are correct that the S&P 500 is still fighting to hang on to late Stage 2B after it made a continuation move to regain that from it's initial Stage 3A breakdown in February, but it's currently below that continuation breakout level again after stalling in March, and the Russell 2000 and and Nasdaq Composite are both already in Stage 3 and there are other signs from the market breadth charts that we look to for the "weight of evidence" method to determine the market stage. These are perhaps more important than the index charts themselves which are just averages and hence lag. I did a detailed explanation of my reasoning at the start of the month in my journal here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...13#pid3613 which should explain my reasoning more clearly.

I might be wrong, but it's what I am interpreting from the breadth at the moment and why I went to mostly cash in my long portfolio at the end of March.

[JimStudent]

Hi Isa, I have a question about a "key reversal day". Re-reading GTA 2012 Weinstein defines a key reversal day - when an index or stock makes a new high for the move, and then not only reverses and closes down on the day, but closes below the low of the prior day. He goes on to say a true key reversal should occur on significant volume.

Does April 4th qualify as a key reversal day. Open 1890, high 1897, close 1865 (which was below April 3rd's close of 1888)

I first noticed the term key reversal day in one of your interviews with Stan Weinstein. I believe it was in response to a question what changed his mind to be bullish at the end of 2012. Stan Weinstein's answer if I remember was a key reversal day in November. That brings me to my second question, what is a key reversal day for an upturn in a trend?

[shaunattwood]

Where can I find these interviews with Stan Weinstein?

Hi Isa, I have a question about a "key reversal day". Re-reading GTA 2012 Weinstein defines a key reversal day - when an index or stock makes a new high for the move, and then not only reverses and closes down on the day, but closes below the low of the prior day. He goes on to say a true key reversal should occur on significant volume.

Does April 4th qualify as a key reversal day. Open 1890, high 1897, close 1865 (which was below April 3rd's close of 1888)

I first noticed the term key reversal day in one of your interviews with Stan Weinstein. I believe it was in response to a question what changed his mind to be bullish at the end of 2012. Stan Weinstein's answer if I remember was a key reversal day in November. That brings me to my second question, what is a key reversal day for an upturn in a trend?

[isatrader]

Where can I find these interviews with Stan Weinstein?

I did an email Q&A with him last May about some of the grey areas of the method and posted it in the Stan Weinstein Stage Analysis thread here:

http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...623#pid623

He's also done six interviews on the Financial Sense Newshour over the last three years which can be found here:

http://www.financialsense.com/contributo...-weinstein

[isatrader]

Hi Isa, I have a question about a "key reversal day". Re-reading GTA 2012 Weinstein defines a key reversal day - when an index or stock makes a new high for the move, and then not only reverses and closes down on the day, but closes below the low of the prior day. He goes on to say a true key reversal should occur on significant volume.

Does April 4th qualify as a key reversal day. Open 1890, high 1897, close 1865 (which was below April 3rd's close of 1888)

I first noticed the term key reversal day in one of your interviews with Stan Weinstein. I believe it was in response to a question what changed his mind to be bullish at the end of 2012. Stan Weinstein's answer if I remember was a key reversal day in November. That brings me to my second question, what is a key reversal day for an upturn in a trend?

April 4th does qualify as a key reversal day in the S&P 500, and it had a reasonable volume pickup which can be seen better than the index chart in the SPY ETF.

I believe a key reversal day when the market is in a downtrend is just the opposite. So when it trades lower initially on the day to make a new low on strong volume, but then reverses and closes higher on the day and above the high of the previous day. Look up the term Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the web for some examples.

As always though, these are less significant on a daily chart than on a weekly chart.

[isatrader]

A few for the watchlist with strong relative volume from yesterdays scans:

CNMD - Stage 2B, significant pullback with strong reversal day

   

FXEN - Stage 1B with strong volume pickup

   

[isatrader]

ASML - Potential Stage 4A breakdown. See attached charts.

[shaunattwood]

I've watched HIMX get killed, and ASML looks like a good one. Would you wait to see if it fills the gap around 84.5 for an ideal entry?

ASML - Potential Stage 4A breakdown. See attached charts.