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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Page 478

(This post was last modified: 2023-01-12, 08:53 PM by pcabc.)

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Interesting strengthening

Have we finally hit the bottom?  My sector overviews are a lot more positive than they were a short while back:

       
       

The S&P500 is now above a rising 150 day EMA [1, light blue moving average.  The 50 day SMA is also above the 150 day SMA].  You need to zoom in, not visible on this chart but would be if plotted larger:
   

Leading sectors look quite strong.  Industrials and Finacials seem to be near completing inverted head and shoulder patterns:
           

We seem to be looking at a stronger technical position in general.  Slightly wary that it might be a bulltrap.  But the fact that the 150 day SMA has levelled off is encouraging.

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(This post was last modified: 2023-01-13, 01:38 AM by pcabc.)

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

(2023-01-12, 08:51 PM)pcabc Wrote: Interesting strengthening

Have we finally hit the bottom?  My sector overviews are a lot more positive than they were a short while back:




The S&P500 is now above a rising 150 day EMA [1, light blue moving average.  The 50 day SMA is also above the 150 day SMA].  You need to zoom in, not visible on this chart but would be if plotted larger:


Leading sectors look quite strong.  Industrials and Finacials seem to be near completing inverted head and shoulder patterns:


We seem to be looking at a stronger technical position in general.  Slightly wary that it might be a bulltrap.  But the fact that the 150 day SMA has levelled off is encouraging.

Looking on Youtube on Stockcharts for example today with Martin Pring, was not optimistic.

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

US Breadth - sectors

All US sectors apart from Communications have 150 day SMAs that have just started rising.  For Comminications it has flattened out and if this sector rises any more its is likely to be sloping up as well [1].  For this sector, which has had a stronger stage 4 than most, the Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] are crossing above the zero line.  Zooming in the former is slightly below but climbing strongly and for the latter the zero line is already crossed.
 
   

Overview:
   

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Crypto breadth

We've had storng positive moves with various cryptos.  Bitcoin itself has had a stong positive move such that it is above its 150 day SME and that SME is essentially flat.  I would expect, unless bitcoin crashes back, that that SMA will start to rise.  The interesting thing thing is that for the past few months the cryptos I've seen have had surprisingly low volatility.  The recent moves seem to break that trend.

My breath calculations are based on a small basket of cryptos.  Points to note:
 [1] There has been a contraction in bitcoin volume over the last couple of months.
 [2, yellow] Advancing / Declining volume is rising and is at its highest since December 2021.
 [6] 1% A/D has crossed the zero line in an upward direction.
 [11, 12 & 13] The % stocks above their 20 and 50 day EMAs has jumped, 20 day is around the 90s, 50 day is above 50%.  There is a slgiht twitch in the % above the 200 day, but it is quite low still.
 [14 & 15] the silver and gold cross indicies have barely twitched, which is unsurpriring since they are comparing two averages each so will react more slowly.
 [B, grey] My long term breadth score has reatched its zero line from below.

I'd expect the bitcoin price spike, and that from others to sell off a bit after such a stong spike.  However, things are starting to look interesting, it will be interesting to see if a selloff makes a higher low when it pulls back.
   

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(This post was last modified: 2023-01-15, 03:09 PM by pcabc.)

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Gold & Silver v their miners

The gold and silver charts plus breadth of their miners is looking interesting.  We seem to be going from a point where everything was headiing south to everything strengthening.

On both breadth charts as well as the metals themselves making positive moves, the 1% A/D for the respective miners are both xrossing the zero line in a posative direction and the % stocks about the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs as well as the gold and silver cross indicies are all positive.  I would expect gold to pull back dramitically following the rapid rise of the last week. Silver could also pull back, but gold looks overextended.

       

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(This post was last modified: 2023-01-29, 08:39 PM by pcabc.)

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

S&P500 versus Russell 3000

My plot of the S&P500 versus breadth measured on the Russell 3000 constituents.  My Russell 3000 constituent list is somewhat out of date.  However, I doubt that it makes a significant difference.

The main thing with the S&P500 is that it is above the down trend that started in the beginning of 2022 [1]. To my eyes 4100 looks significant and it is just below it, so it will be interesting if it pushes through, pauses or drops back down off it.  Also worth noting that the Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D are crossing their zero lines in a bullish direction and the Golden Cross Index [15] is near crossing 50%, so nearly 50% of constituents have their 50 day EMA above their 200 day EMA and that proportion at present is rising. The cummulative New Highs - New Lows line is near crossing above its 100 day SMA which is bullish, it looks like there may be a few new highs, but given the down trend it cannot be many.

   

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Gold versus gold miners

To my eyes gold [1] is over extended.  How much longer can it keep going up without support, especially such a steep rise. To me it looks like the pair of trend-lines I've drawn might be significant, but it could crash through them. The Silver [14] and Gold Cross [15] indicies are interesting as they have been on a strong rise, so the nuimber of miners with their 20 day EMAs over their 50 day EMAs has been increasing as has the number with their 50 day EMAs above their 20 day EMA.
   

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Bitcoin versus a pool of crypto currencies

The current rally is strong across a lot of cryptos [1] but I cannot see how it is staying up?  The Weinstein Mementum [5] is below but headed, close, up through the zero and the %1 A/D [6] has already done this.  However, the number of cryptos with their 50 day EMA above their 200 day EMA has barely moved.  My suspicion is this is the start of Stage 1 rather than a move straight in to Stage 2 although in various measures the long term breadth has strengthened.

   

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