[notanewmember]

Hi there thanks for the link to here, IsaTrader.

I am here really to bounce some ideas around as no one I know in real life is interested in trading. They are interested in football, X-Factor etc.

We have had a awful correction in equities globally and during that time, have been stopped out (but with good profits), trading alone, can really feel alone! Where does the market go next?

Only 4% of traders in the public short the market - I think to be a rounded trader, one MUST master this side of trading, even if it is using paper/fake trades.

The site really looks into depth into Mr Weinsteins methods, and it takes it to an advanced level, so I may not have any extra information to contribute.

I am using a mixture of Jesse Livermore pivotal points (suited to fast moving booming or crashing markets), and Stage Analysis (suited more for a normal market conditions in my humble opinion). I consider these methods like martial arts (a discipline of mind and body advancement), and where appropriate once mastered can be used when the conditions are right - such as Wing Chun, Jujitsu, Thai Boxing etc. This video may illustrate what I am saying; Trading is akin to learning a martial art http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfDLXYOcOcc

I am looking to move into a hedge fund or Fund management or Stock broking in the Southampton area, or may commute to London - so if there are any Hargreaves Lansdown directors reading?!

Some of you may recognise me on ADVFN or on GEI.

I run a Trading diary here at GEI
And a blog

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IF ALL ELSE FAILS;
I've got a little idea for buying up ALL the Weinstein books - there aren't that many out there and it is out of print. And then they'll be a shortage, and we can charge £500 a book! Only Joking


Kind Regards

[gbarbs]

Hi All - I am new to the site and introducing myself here. I began investing towards the end of 2008 just before the market crashed in 2009. I started out as a value investor, buying undervalued stocks and not paying attention to any technicals. I did well but in hindsight the market conditions made me feel smarter than I really was. I did have the confidence to invest in the midst of extreme fear and I gained that from some books I read on value investing. That early success and mindset delayed my introduction to mr. weinstein. his name and book came up a few times on blogs, ,etc so I read it the first time about a year or so ago. I just read it a second time after deciding I would switch primarily to his system and wanted to make sure I was up to speed on the details. I have to say I think I learned as much the second time around because you don't pick up on some of the little things until you begin practicing for a while.

I 've lost the gains I had made early on riding "value" winners back down, and then compounded that by adding to undervalued stocks. I did that after reading weinstein's book and so have learned costly lessons that won't be forgotten.

After brushing up on the book and reviewing the market and searching, I started buying the last few months and have done quite well. Ive been short gold (GLD & NGD) which has done well, and have been stopped out of a few losers with small losses. One of the winners I got in was KKD which jumped nicely a few days after buying.

I recently purchased OIS and it is one of my favorite looking charts.

Others I own now are THRX, EVC, CMLS, CBST, ARKR, AMAG, ACOR

Pharmaceuticals and healthcare look strong to me.

The broad market looks to remain bullish but I see a divergence on the HL and DOW starting in Sept 2012. I am not up to speed on anything from the PTR or GTR, so I have only used the indicators from the book.

Questions I have are if anyone has replaced GM with a company to look to as a market beacon? I've looked at the new GM, GE, F, and AAPL but have not proven that as a real signal.

Also not sure what a replacement for the Price/Dividend ratio would be. I understand tax laws have caused that to come down so not sure if anyone uses a good indicator for the market being over or undervalued.

With the early warning from the HL, and global indexes almost all breaking below their 30 week MA's I am remaining slightly defensive. Not hesitating to buy but using trading stops and trying to keep the stop loss distance to a minimum. I've broken that rule for a few that looked exciting, but staying small on those.

This site looks like a great resource as I can't dedicate all of my time to looking at charts and a nice place to bounce ideas around.

[notanewmember]

Questions I have are if anyone has replaced GM with a company to look to as a market beacon? I've looked at the new GM, GE, F, and AAPL but have not proven that as a real signal.

I haven't found one certainly.
I use the SP500, which is an index of 500 stocks on the NYSE. It is hard to manipulate 500 stock prices.

[isatrader]

Questions I have are if anyone has replaced GM with a company to look to as a market beacon? I've looked at the new GM, GE, F, and AAPL but have not proven that as a real signal.

Like notanewmember said above the S&P 500 is considered the key market to focus on these days, and is what Weinstein focuses most on in his GTA reports. For individual stocks you need to look at those with the largest weightings in the index, so here's the current top 10 by weighting: Apple, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Chevron, Johnson & Johnson, Intl Business Machines, Microsoft, Google, Procter & Gamble and Pfizer

Also not sure what a replacement for the Price/Dividend ratio would be. I understand tax laws have caused that to come down so not sure if anyone uses a good indicator for the market being over or undervalued.

I'd recommend looking at the Market Breadth thread that we do on here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=4 that focuses on the "Weight of Evidence" from the market internals like the advance decline line, new high new lows, bullish percents, moving average breadth gauges, pull/call ratio etc. As personally, I think it's the most important thread on the site, as it helps you to determine the broad market market stage in advance of the price action in the major indexes. Which is a crucial part of this top down method.

For an individual long term indicator to watch, the NYSE Bullish Percent Index is considered the best long term gauge of risk in the broad market imo.

[Tryst]

welcome, notanewmember and gbarbs. I'm also relatively new here, as joined a few months back. Isatrader is doing a fantastic job with the website, which has some great content already considering how young it is.

Thanks for the blog link, notanewmember. And for the youtube video...enjoyed that. I am also on ADVFN, but only use it for the Afferro (AFF) board really, as mainly use iii for general stock bbs.

[Red1324]

Hi all!

I am very excited to have found this site and am currently reading through the threads to gain as much knowledge on this method as possible. Once I have read the t2w thread and Stan Weinsteins book, which should arrive this week, I hope I can contribute to the forums.

About my background: I am currently in the process of acquiring a master's degree in economics and I have been fascinated about the markets for a long time. I am relatively new to trading and have only been demoing for the past year and trying to learn everything I possibly can. I have had success with price action trading on my demo account and I hope I can incorporate the things I have learned to Weinsteins method. The thing that I was missing was looking at the market as a whole and using relative strength analysis.

I fell in love with isatraders "Market Breadth" thread on t2w because of the way it looked at the market as a whole. This clicked with me more than what I have learned from uni text books. I then stumbled upon the Stage Analysis thread and got an invite to join this wonderful site.

[goodtyneguy]

Welcome to Stage Analysis Red1324 and yes Isatrader has already created through his hard work and passion to master Stage Analysis a great resource to learn to trade and/or invest using the method. Looking at what he has in store for the future, he has only just started!

I have an interest in economics but only studied at a low level as part of a business study qualification but still try to fathom out for myself what is going on at the global macro level. Much of the more profound stuff goes over the top of my head and especially when it comes to the mathematical equations.

I like to follow Professor Steve Keen of Austrialia, he is my favourite and I particularly like his software he calls Minsky which he has uses to debunk the neoclassical thinking that debt, banks and money are not relevant in economic modelling. You may of course disagree. If you are interested, he records and posts up to youtube his talks he gets invited too speak at including talks to central banks although the western central banks have not invited him as yet. Shame as I think he has the least painful solution to solving the debt crisis. His interview on the BBC's Hardtalk sometime ago is a classic in my opinion.

Another lecturer I like is the Bulgarian Professor Krasimmir Petrov, he also records his lectures and posts them up to youtube and one can get to know of new ones by subscribing to his blog. I have learned a lot from him and I imagine they maybe useful for someone like you as a refresher. Now economics can be a very dry subject for most and sometimes a good cure for insomnia. That is not the case with Professor Petrov, he can become very animated in his presentations and his passion also shows through in the varying tones of his voice.

Anyway, just thought I'd post that, but that's it for economics as I'm sure Isatrader wants Stage Analysis to stay focused on just that. Best of luck with your studies in both respects.

[Red1324]

Thanks for the links goodtyneguy. I glanced over them and will look at them more in depth, but the pictured I got from those people is that they treat economics in more of an old school philosophical way instead of the "new" mathematical dynamic optimization way. I love mathematics and I think we have more math professors, stats professors and engineering professors teaching us than economics professors, but I think the philosophical point of view is much more practical and even better at analyzing the economy. At the masters degree level there is no more economics, only maths and stats.

This is only what I have seen at my school though. It looks like we are being raised to become mainly quants. Other schools may have different approaches and goals.

Edit: Didn't mean to derail the thread. I'll focus my posts on stage analysis.