[Tryst]

Isatrader, with MOIL, what is your staged analysis take on this one? Is it still in stage 1 until it sticks a weekly landing above your 2nd resistance line? So a close above this resistance would be bullish tomorrow...as it starts a stage 2A?

In my opinion it broke out into Stage 2A at the beginning of the year on the weekly close above the lower trendline that I marked on the chart, as it also broke above it's relative performance zero line, the 30 week MA went flat, and it had a small volume pickup - although, not enough to meet the methods requirements for an entry, and it was still below a lot of resistance, which has contributed to it's volatile Stage 2 so far. Also it was a very early breakout.

So I'd now put it at it's second continuation point. But if it can clear the trendline from the 2013 swing high marked and see an increase in volume, then it will be in a much better position to potentially continue its advance.

The oil and gas producers sector is one of no trend, so would you still consider a trade in that case?

Re. the oil and gas producers you can see that some stocks are in bear markets while others the path of least resistance is higher, which explains the sectors lack of primary trend.

The Oil and Gas Producers chart (NMX0530) is in a very broad Stage 1 range, so although not the strongest sector, it's also not the weakest, as it currently resides 19th in the overall relative performance rankings out of 39. And hence only stocks with the very best A+ technical patterns in the group would be tradable imo.

Personally, I'd say MOIL.L has a B or C grade technical pattern currently, as it only has a small base and hardly any volume increase since Stage 2 began, and it's not clear what that volume surge in March was.

I agree, the volume was something that I was just going to comment on. It looks like it was more volume on the decline down than there is at the base/bottom it has formed. If you look at some of the Precious metals and industrial metals miners which are forming a bottom, the volumes are quite high (possibly accumulation).

Looking at the daily of MOIL it shows some technical patterns. The first break of resistance gapped up above resistance (Bullish) but it formed a balance area here and then gapped down below support and the price then moved down to touch the 30 week MA before making its next leg up - the rising 30 week MA means it made a higher low. indicative of a highly likelihood of a change in trend in this instance.

   

A question: In stage analysis, re. support, what is the general rule of thumb? Are horizontal support lines the first lines of support with the 10 week MA being the next, followed by the 30 week MA, with the 40 week being the last chance saloon for support in stage 2, possible stage 3?