I am going to put a test short of the S&P 500 on today if my broker will actually let me, at half my normal position size, with the aim of adding to a full position size if it works out, as I believe that we are around the pullback entry point in early Stage 4, but with no confirmation as yet. However, currently they won't let me short it - I'm using the XSPD.L which is the only standard S&P 500 short that I can find on the London Stock Exchange. But I keep getting a message saying that "Dealing is restricted on this security at this time".
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Update: I've managed to do it. There are two etfs for the XTRACKERS S&P 500 INVERSE DAILY UCITS ETF. One listed for in USD which is the XSPD and one listed in GBP which is XSPS. So i needed to use the XSPS and have put on a half position that's risks 1% of my account.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2020-04-13, 10:18 PM)marry123 Wrote: Interesting fact is that if the stock market rallies over 50% from bottom, the bottom is in and bear market is over (we have rallied 50% right now so need to see if we can get over 50%). This has happened 20 of 20 times in the past. This data is from legendary trader Larry Williams who on March 17 became bullish and called the market bottom. He does not think we will see another low based on all his technical indicators.
I have noticed one time quite recently when the above wasn't true (although depends whether he's counting drops of less than 20%). As in 2015 it regained almost the entire decline before falling lower again. So there might be other periods to that he left out. But certainly the weighting is that it's true more often times than not.
So will be interesting to see if the S&P 500 does close above the 50% level. But we haven't closed a week above it yet.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2020-04-14, 10:30 AM)isatrader Wrote: I am going to put a test short of the S&P 500 on today if my broker will actually let me, at half my normal position size, with the aim of adding to a full position size if it works out, as I believe that we are around the pullback entry point in early Stage 4, but with no confirmation as yet. However, currently they won't let me short it - I'm using the XSPD.L which is the only standard S&P 500 short that I can find on the London Stock Exchange. But I keep getting a message saying that "Dealing is restricted on this security at this time".
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Update: I've managed to do it. There are two etfs for the XTRACKERS S&P 500 INVERSE DAILY UCITS ETF. One listed for in USD which is the XSPD and one listed in GBP which is XSPS. So i needed to use the XSPS and have put on a half position that's risks 1% of my account.
Curious as to what you see here, based on Stan's method, that the S+P may be a good short here. Can you perhaps put up a chart of the S+P pointing out what you see that may make it a short here?
(2020-04-14, 02:44 PM)marry123 Wrote: Curious as to what you see here, based on Stan's method, that the S+P may be a good short here. Can you perhaps put up a chart of the S+P pointing out what you see that may make it a short here?
Thank you.
I mainly trade long so don't take my word as gospel on this, but I'm basing this trade on it being a potential pullback entry within the early phase of Stage 4. So if you were looking at the ideal trade chart for shorting on page 229, I'm going for the point B type of entry. Although the S&P 500 is way below the breakdown level still obviously.
The previous support that was knifed through during the initial decline, has now turned into a resistance zone, and we are now within that area, and also as you noted we are around the 50% retracement level, around which if the market is trending you'll often see a reversal and the trend would reassert itself.
I normally prefer to make pullback entries when I'm long by dropping down to the 2 hour chart and waiting for the move into Stage 2 on that intraday timeframe. But as this is a short pullback entry and I'm doing it through my pension account. I can only trade during London hours. So the US market will be open for another 4 and half hours after I can make trades on it. So i'm using the smaller position size into the strength today instead of waiting for a turn down.
I hope that all makes sense.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2020-04-14, 02:44 PM)marry123 Wrote: Curious as to what you see here, based on Stan's method, that the S+P may be a good short here. Can you perhaps put up a chart of the S+P pointing out what you see that may make it a short here?
Thank you.
I mainly trade long so don't take my word as gospel on this, but I'm basing this trade on it being a potential pullback entry within the early phase of Stage 4.
The previous support that was knifed through during the initial decline, has now turned into a resistance zone, and we are now within that area, and also as you noted we are around the 50% retracement level, around which if the market is trending you'll often see a reversal and the trend would reassert itself.
I normally prefer to make pullback entries when I'm long by dropping down to the 2 hour chart and waiting for the move into Stage 2 on that intraday timeframe. But as this is a short pullback entry and I'm doing it through my pension account. I can only trade during London hours. So the US market will be open for another 4 and half hours after I can make trades on it. So i'm using the smaller position size into the strength today instead of waiting for a turn down.
I hope that all makes sense.
Thanks, it makes sense. If this is just a bear market rally perhaps it makes it to around 61.8 retracement around 2920s, if the 50% if not the top.
Who knows if this is a bounce, whether it will carry on bullish or fall back. However, I thought I'd post some interesting things from my screener. Some seem to be forming interesting patterns, other seem to have broken out on good volume, but no close support.
AANX, ABT, AKAM, ALNY, BIO, COST, EXPO, INCY, RCUS, SEDG, TGCDF and ZTS.
Potential swing high today. But needs more conformation still. These 10 stocks make up 53% of the Nasdaq 100 and so have a outsized effect on what happens in the index.
Daily charts
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Multiple Gold Stocks have had 100%+ moves in the last six weeks. There has been new highs in many stocks in the sector as physical gold trends higher outperforming the stock market indexes and other commodities year to date. However, there has not been many opportunities for safe entry points so far in the stocks, as it's just been a V shaped recovery in a lot of gold stocks back to new highs. But they are high on the watchlist for when they do start to setup in constructive patterns, as sector themes are especially important in Stage Analysis using the Forest to the Tree approach.
Here's a few for the watchlist from my scans, a few of which have broken out today - AGI, AKG, AU, DRD, EQX, GFI, GOLD, KGC, NEM, NG
