[isatrader]

This is very interesting. I have third opinion and have been in TLW.L since the start of the month. See the chart below, look at the second arrow. The first arrow is from my virtual portfolio, please ignore. I viewed TLW.L as breaking out from a trendline in the beginning of the month.

As stated elsewhere I'm not doing as well as I was hoping so perhaps I'm trying to get into trades too early. And perhaps Isa's use of Ichimoku stands him in good stead. Understanding the reasons for the divergent opinions might be educational.

I think as you can see from my posts over the years that when I started using the method (see the original thread on trade2win website http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...lysis.html) I also would have identified the same point as Smellypunks, and got in at that point many times. But as my research into the method developed over time I came to realise that the opportunity costs that Weinstein talks about in the book are critical for success, as you only have finite resources at your disposal in your portfolio, and so you need to utilise your money wisely. And I determined that the best way for me to do that was to try and focus on finding the best quality stocks that meet the four key requirements of the method. i.e. the price action setup; volume increase on the Stage 2A breakout week and following; strong relative performance versus the market and above a flattening or rising zero line, and the often forgotten resistance to get through.

As you know I find ichimoku clouds useful for visualising long term resistance on a weekly chart, for both levels and time based resistance. And favour always buying a Stage 2A breakout that occurs close to or above the resistance zone. As buying below it just gives you one more obstacle to get though and virtually all the best quality A+ setups occur above it imo.

Stage 2A breakouts often occur under the resistance zone, but unless the other three components are exceptional and showing A+ characteristics, then I wouldn't touch them these days. As TLW.L is a great example of why, as stocks that have had long Stage 4 declines will often rebound up significantly from their ultimate low, but then lose steam as they meet resistance from the people that suffered and held on through the entire decline and are attempting to get out even or for a smaller loss. that's when the real Stage 1 basing phase begins in earnest imo, as the desperate hangers on gradually get out and new people start to get interested in the developing base.