RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Sector market breadth, US Energy, Bitcoin / crypto and Commodities ex Precious Metals ex Oil
Energy
1. The price has pulled up above a nearly flat 150 day SMA. It has made a recent higher low and it looks like its making a higher high.
2.The Advance / Decline line is not diverging and the advancing / declining volume line looks stronger than the index..
3. New highs minus new lows are posative.
4. Weinstein's Momentum Index is positive, though it was higer a couple of months back.
5. The 1% Advance / Decline, which is essentially the same as Weinstein's Momentum Index, but with a 200 day exponential moving average in place of the simple moving average is on the cusp of crossing above the zero line. For more in this indicator see here.
6. & 8. The McClellan Oscillator and its volume companion are both posative though the latter may be getting overbought.
7. & 9. The McClellan Summation Indicies, both normal and volume are both crossing their zero lines in a positive direction.
10. & 11. The % Stocks above the 50 and 200 day EMAs are both nnear or just in the overbought area of 70%.
So overall this looks positive, though perhaps a little overbought? But overbought indications can persis for quite a while before anything react to them, as least for the % stocks about their EMAs.
Crypto
I've included this as their is either a lot of crypto news lately, or I have just been paying more attention to it. Probally a bit of both.
1. Price for bitcoin (used in lieu of an index) is just below a flattish 150 day SME. Zooming in the SMA is declining, but it is very nearly flat. Looking at recent prices its probally on the SMA now.
2. The Advance / Decline and its volume counterpart are in step with bitcoin price.
3. New highs minus new lows are essentially neutral.
4. For the Weinstein Momentum it is positive whereas the 1% Advance / Decline, with its faster 200 day EMA, rather than SMA, has just crossed below its zero line.
5. & 6.. The McClellan Oscillators have declined from positive territory into the negative area but have a very short term uptick. The Summation Indicies are crossing their zero lines (or nearly) in a negative direction.
7. The % stocks above their 50 & 200 day EMAs are oversold.
On the whole this looks to me to be neutral to a little negative. It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next couple of days with recent positive price actio.
Commodities ex Oil & Gas Producers ex Precious metals
This one is a little odd. I've taken a list of commodities but excluded oil & gas and precious metals as I track those separately. However, the ETF I use as an index is all commodities, so does not have this
1. Price has just broken out.
2. The Advance / Decline and volume version, at least on this scale, do not appear to have broken out. But then, it is worth looking at these in a day or two to see what happens.
3. New highs minus new lows is positive. Not as high as April / May, but still positive.
4. The Weinstein and 1% Advance Decline indicators are both in decline but both are definitely positive.
5. Overall I'd say that the McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indicies are fairly neutral, but the latter two are headed in a positive direction.
6. The % stocks above the 50 day EMA is in bearish territory, and the 200 EMA version is near 50% neutral.
I'd say this is weakly positive, but if the EFT's breakout continues it will be interesting to see how this develops.
