(2013-09-24, 03:54 PM)gbarbs Wrote: 1. Dow is still stage 2 but has pierced its 30 wma and is rising less sharply. Its losing some incline but still increasing. Remains stage 2. I revisited this today and noted the S&P has not broken its 30 wma, or its trendline, and although the Dow pierced its 30 wma, its 150 day MA acted as support. A double check of all the sector charts shows the overwhelming majority are bullish. Bottom line is stage analysis is still BULLISH
I think I'd disagree with this one, as I have the Dow as in Stage 3A, but near the top of the range, so as always it could still make another Stage 2 continuation move, and avert the developing Stage 3 pattern, but there are signs of a possible head and shoulders top developing. The problem with Stage 3 is it's often tricky to determine until it's nearly complete, so one thing I look for is a weekly close below the more sensitive 30 week weighted moving average to differentiate between a Stage 2 consolidation and a developing larger Stage 3 pattern. And other things are weakening technicals overall, like the 10 week MA turning flat or lower, and price trading above and below it, plus weakening relative performance. The Dow for example currently has a technical attributes score of 5 out of 9, which is a mixed score with only a slight bias on the bullish side. So I'll be watching if that continues to weaken or improves again. But currently the Dow looks the weakest of the US indexes and so the Stage Analysis for it suggests a still positive but Neutral rating currently, whereas the other indexes like the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 are still in Stage 2B imo, and so are still Bullish currently.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I don't much like voodoo, so I was torn about posting this. . . But it is interesting. I wasn't searching for it, it just came across my screen. You shouldn't let it direct your trading decisions. I'm mean right now the SMA 150 is pointed up.
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Attached is the exclusive S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns charts.
There was 12 breakouts and 7 breakdowns this week, which takes the total for September so far, with only one day left to 148 breakouts and 31 breakdowns.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
To go into even more depth on the individual sectors, attached is a number of different measures based around the advance decline data for each major sector. Below is the charts:
XLB, XLE and XLF
XLI, XLK and XLP
XLU, XLV and XLY
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
