Stage 4B- Examples - Page 3

#17

RE: Stage 4B- Examples

(2014-05-27, 06:20 PM)pcabc Wrote: Just to be clear, are these stage 4B as although they have bottomed out and are most rising they are still below a falling MA30?

Stage 4B- is a sub-stage better than Stage 4B, and is very similar to Stage 1A in characteristics, but is used for stocks that have had much deeper Stage 4 declines and are often still below declining 30 week MA's, and so the technical attributes will be less than Stage 1A stocks. But I look for price to be recovering above a stabilizing 10 week (50 day) MA and have made a higher low, but still be below a declining 30 week MA in most cases.

Weinstein highlights these for short term trades only after a broad market Stage 4 decline has occurred. For example he was recommending some Stage 4B- stocks as trades in the November 2011 interview on the financial sense newshour, and as you can see from the above examples from early April 2009, he was recommending a lot of them then as well. However, in a normal market conditions they are too early to consider as are normally below heavy resistance.

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply
#18

RE: Stage 4B- Examples

Quote:Stage 4B- is a sub-stage better than Stage 4B, and is very similar to Stage 1A in characteristics...

Whoa there. Only just noticed the '-'. Need to go back and read up on these extra bits in the forum. I know I've seen it quoted that Weinstein did not feel the need to update the book, but the addition of an extra chapter to cover this would be nice, or a slim pamphlet.

Need to read up again but one thing that is not clear about trading in my mind is whether MA30 or MA10 is important as MA10 is mentioned as best for traders to use (page 13).

pcabc

Reply
#19

RE: Stage 4B- Examples

(2014-05-27, 10:16 PM)pcabc Wrote: Whoa there. Only just noticed the '-'. Need to go back and read up on these extra bits in the forum. I know I've seen it quoted that Weinstein did not feel the need to update the book, but the addition of an extra chapter to cover this would be nice, or a slim pamphlet.

Need to read up again but one thing that is not clear about trading in my mind is whether MA30 or MA10 is important as MA10 is mentioned as best for traders to use (page 13).

Traders should focus more on the 10 week MA than the 30 week MA and breakouts that are already in a strong Stage 2 uptrend, ideally above any near term resistance, and hitting new 52 week highs after a proper period of low volume consolidation above a strongly rising 30 week MA. As I said in the previous post, Stage 4B- stocks are only suitable to trade when the broad market is recovering from a Stage 4 decline like in April 2009 and November 2011.

Here's a refresher on the 13 sub-stages as listed in the Global Trend Alert Newsletters Weinstein produces for his institutional clients:

Definitions of the Stages and Sub-stages

Stage 1A Start of a base. Needs much more time.
Stage 1 Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
Stage 1B Late in base-building phase. Watch for breakout.

Stage 2A Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
Stage 2 Advancing Stage.
Stage 2B Getting late in uptrend.

Stage 3A Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
Stage 3 The Top Area. Start to reduce positions.
Stage 3B Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling.

Stage 4A Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining positions.
Stage 4 The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.
Stage 4B Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.
Stage 4B- Although not yet “officially” in Stage 1A, stock has now seen its low for the cycle.

Additional ratings
(A) Early in that Stage.
(B) Late in that Stage.
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply
#20

RE: Stage 4B- Examples

(2014-05-27, 10:29 PM)isatrader Wrote: Here's a refresher on the 13 sub-stages as listed in the Global Trend Alert Newsletters Weinstein produces for his institutional clients:

Thanks, appreciated.

Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)