[isatrader]

Relative performance is one of the four key components of Weinstein's method, and can be used to make sure you are focused on the right area of the market at the right time. As not all Stage 2 advances are created equal, hence, you need to focus on the areas showing the strongest relative performance in order to get onboard the best Stage 2 advances.

So with the strength coming back into precious metals and some commodities over the last few months I wanted to show different relative performance charts for Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil to give an idea where we stand currently with each one, and whether any are on or close to a buy signal versus the S&P 500 market.

Gold - the weekly relative performance chart made a Stage 2A breakout in early February. The monthly relative performance chart closed back above it's 30 month MA for the first time in four years in February. And the 3% relative performance P&F chart had it's first double top breakout signal in February in four years, putting the P&F relative performance back on a buy signal.

           


Silver - the weekly relative performance chart made a Stage 2A breakout in early February, but immediately reversed and pulled back to the 30 week MA over the last three weeks, where it rebounded this week. So still Stage 1 on the weekly relative performance chart. On the monthly relative performance chart the move since the November bottom has given it it's first higher high since 2011, but it's still a fair way below it's declining 30 month MA currently. The 3% relative performance P&F chart has been basing for the last two years, and made it's second double top breakout in February, following a failed breakout in 2014, but it has pulled back below in a column of Os, and so is on a weak relative performance buy signal currently, and needs to make a further double top breakout to confirm the relative performance buy signal.

           


Copper - the weekly relative performance chart has moved into early Stage 1, following it's most recent bottom in November. The monthly relative performance chart shows a strong bounce, but it's still in Stage 4B, and is still below the most recent swing high and far below a still declining 30 month MA. Which is again shown on the 3% relative performance P&F chart, which has moved back into a column of Xs, but hasn't had a double top breakout signal since 2010, and has made continuous double bottom breakdowns since Sept 2011. So we'd need to see a double top breakout for Copper to become more interesting again.

           


Crude Oil - the weekly relative performance chart is in Stage 4B, with it's latest swing low in February, although it's had a strong bounce for a few weeks. The monthly relative performance chart is a bleaker picture with the ratio extremely far below it declining 30 month MA, with only a slight uptick since the start of the year. The 3% relative performance P&F chart is more promising however, as it's only one box away from a potential double top breakout signal, and so although in Stage 4B on the weekly, the P&F relative performance chart is showing some positive signs, so it could outperfrom stocks in the short term if it makes the double top breakout signal, even though it's in a weak long term position.