[isatrader]

This ETF is on my watchlist for this week. I want to see a friday close below the neckline of the H&S-pattern.

I'd recommend using logarithmic charts on weekly charts, as it is very hard to correctly identify the stages without it. As on your chart the 2011 severe Stage 4 breakdown looks like a small blip on your chart without logarithmic scaling, but was actually worse than where we are currently.

On VTI I disagree with your Stages assessment as it closed below a major weekly swing low in August 2015, and so moved into Stage 4A then imo, and then had a typical recovery rally that we often see in early Stage 4A, and has broken another set of weekly swing lows that formed below a declining 30 week MA in late last year, and so has resumed the Stage 4A decline. The break below where you have marked up would be first continuation below major support imo, which is the move into the major phase of Stage 4.