[pcabc]

re gold, XAU still trending down long term below steeply declining 150 day ma, advise caution like with oil producers false bottom last year

Agree. Not suggesting anyone buys as gold is still in Stage 4. Am just highlighting an area to watch showing relative strength versus the market and forming big bases.

Here is my own calculated breadth chart for gold plotted against market breadth for gold miners. Health warning, calculated by a small and fairly arbitrary pool of miners.


Please ignore the noise spikes on the gold price graph.

I think it is quite interesting what is going on. The general theme in stage analysis is listen to the chart rather than anything else, and also 'Forest to the trees', should we be looking at going long on gold miner stocks with the current market tipping into stage 4?

However, it seems perfectly sensible (a value consideration) that gold miners are inextricably linked to the gold price, which might be on the end of stage 4 or in 1A. So the question is, is the link to gold price more important than the status of the wider equity market?

The other question is, if the gold price is not in stage 2 why are some gold miners on the cusp of breaking out. Looking at PHAU.L it looks like gold might be turning the corner. Are some of the the gold bugs jumping onto gold miner shares in anticipation? Presumably if the gold price does not do as expected then this won't go well?