(This post was last modified: 2015-03-02, 02:59 PM by Amedee.)
RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2015-03-02, 12:37 AM)isatrader Wrote:(2015-03-02, 12:24 AM)Amedee Wrote: I have not been posting lately...
While doing some screening of sectors and stocks, I came along WIX in the Internet sector.
I think it is preparing for a stage 2 breakout after a large base...
Price objective $33.5.
Hi Amedee, it has some potential for the future, but it is still in Stage 1 currently and not showing good relative strength, as it's under performing below a decline zero line. So imo it would need to breakout above $22.50 on volume to move in Stage 2A from where it is currently.
I agree that $22.50 is the breakout although there was a earlier breakout @21 that didn't work out (alhough it is perhaps a healthy pull back!?).
On the other hand, entering @18.33 gives a SL with low risk. Perhaps for a first partly position. I don't agree fully about the relative strength. I see a basing area on the P&F relative strength (trend) chart (WIX vs SPXEWI).
This is how I look at it (+ = pos, - = neg):
+ Sector Internet is improving (bullish percent is bull confirmed, positive trend of stocks in sector is on bull alert, the amount of stocks whose RS chart is in a column of rising Xs in this sector is improving...)
+ Sector is moving up in the sector bell curve
+ Sector still unfavored but improving
+ Sector ranks #12 out of the 40 DWA sectors
+ P&F price chart broke the blue dotted bullish resistance line or BRL (normally acts like a brick wall!)
+ Since breaking that BRL, we saw higher bottoms on the trend chart
+ Large base forming at the level of $17-17,5
+ Price objective horizontal count P&F chart = (18*0.5*3)+14.5 = $41,5
+ Price objective vertical count P&F chart = [(7*0.5)+(2*1)]*3 + 17=$33.5
+ Default RS chart WIX vs SPXEWI is bottoming. A faster RS chart shows a basing area and buy signals
+ The one box reversal chart on stockcharts shows a large base and full fulcrum @21. Actually on a pull back.
- After the $21 breakout, the stock didn't continue to rise on the P&F chart. This indicates possible weakness in the fulcrum pattern
- If the stock falls below $18, it shows weakness.
* Stoploss traders $16.89 (IR = 8%) , stoploss investors $13.81
* When one waits for the breakout @22.50, I think a good stoploss is $19.61 (IR = 13%)
In other words, I think this is worth partial buying. My reward to risk is between 10 and 16, depending on the price objective I use (see my buy decision tabel).
Imagine a portfolio of $100.000:
Questions
- Can somebody post a sector chart for Internet as mentioned in Weinstein's book page 78? I do have the information but it is all P&F based. I would like to make a comparison...
- Doesn't the former breakout @21 qualify for a stage 2 breakout? Not enough volume perhaps...
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Amedee
Pulling the weeds and watering the flowers (since 10/06/2015)...
Amedee
Pulling the weeds and watering the flowers (since 10/06/2015)...