[terces]

Isatrader - thank you for the thoughtful reply. As the last few years of this monster bull rally have proven, those who follow doom and gloom attitudes about the market were left behind in the dust. I back tested Stans' approach against the dogmatic contrarian approach, and in every single market position, we would have been much better off following the theory of Stage Analysis.

I am very convinced of this strategy, but have a lot more studying to do and I'm sure will be back to you with more questions. As you suggested I will be digging into the Market Breadth thread.

I do have some ideas on the short side and will participate with those.

The other contrarian opinion which has been postulated is: what the market least expects is a long slow, almost imperceptible downtrend of 10% or 15% over 2015, and so that is what is most likely to occur. Whatever happens, using the Weight of Evidence, we should be able to detect these trends instead of using esoteric methods for guessing at them.

Thanks again for your insight.