(2015-01-14, 06:10 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2015-01-14, 06:05 PM)Amedee Wrote: In other words, are you still bullish or bearish or neutral?
Do you see positive or negative divergence with the trend of NYSE or DJIA?
I think this is, for now, a very interesting and difficult topic...
Neutral currently, as the Weight of Evidence from the various breadth charts is the most neutral it's been for a very long time. So not giving many clues on direction imo, so I have just made a few test buys this week, to add to my already open positions that were doing ok. So am about 70% invested and 30% cash at the moment.
I am about 30% invested and 70% cash. My short term indicators are negative. And the following long term indicator worries me.
It is the P&F bullish percent indicator (long term indicator) but plotted as a line chart. I also remark the divergence between the BPLine and the indexes (easier to see on the BP line chart then on the P&F BP chart, see lowest chart)
For people that are not familiar with the bullish percent (from the book of Jeremy Du Plessis): it measures the percentage of stocks in a index where the last point and figure signal was a double top buy (knowing that is doesn't matter how many colums back the signal occured, provided there has not been a subsequent double bottom sell!)
Du Plessis writes extensively about this indicator:
- Area above and beneath 70 (range 80-60) = normal bull market
- Area around 50 (a band of 3 % above and beneath) = trend change area
- Area between 70 and 30 = trend change area (if the BP oscillates above and below the 50 band, without ever reaching 70 or 30) it indicates uncertainty about the prevailing trend. But if, the BP falls to the 50 band and bounces back towards the 70 level, it is a reinforcement of the uptrend (I am waiting for that one...)
To be complete, here is the BP point and figure chart
Any other thoughts on the long term?
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Amedee
Pulling the weeds and watering the flowers (since 10/06/2015)...
Amedee
Pulling the weeds and watering the flowers (since 10/06/2015)...