RE: Beginners Questions
(2014-10-20, 01:20 PM)GeorgeM Wrote: If you buy in the day of the breakout and then you wait for a weekly close above resistance and it is negative, you sell immediately with a small loss, let's say 5%. The question is how much higher do you buy, if you buy after a weekly close above resistance instead of a daily close ? You buy higher maybe 5 %, so you have a wider stop. But the chance of stop being hit is smaller and the winners vs losers increases so you maybe make out that 5 % higher price. If you are going after a big move, maybe 5 % is not such a big price to pay for having evidence that the move is strong enough. I am not sure about this myself, just speculating....
This method is always dependent on whether you are placing an investor position or a trader position, as it is quite different. For example the Stage 2A breakout point is mostly for investors looking for a longer term move of up to 12 months with a price target of 100% or more in most cases as we are looking for A+ candidates. And so an investor will often wait for the weekly close for confirmation before entering and hence like you say have a larger stop loss because of this. But to mitigate the risk, you can use position sizing to limit the risk to within your tolerances. My personal method of position sizing is based on a stocks average true range (ATR) and means I only risk 2% of my account no matter what the percentage distance is. Everyone has their own method for position sizing, and it's not part of the method, so you won't find anything in the book on it.
The increased risk at the Stage 2A breakout point is also why an investor is only supposed to use a half position size on entry at that point, as this also lowers the risk and is such because the initial pullback in early Stage 2 often retraces the entire breakout and some stocks even dip below it for a period before reversing higher. Hence you need a lot of patience to trade the Stage 2A breakout point. Traders on the other hand should focus on continuation breakouts after a proper consolidation, of stocks already in strong Stage 2 advances, where risk is lower and moves are quicker.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.