[isatrader]

Great set of charts as usual isatrader, thank you.
I'm sure you've all noticed this. Am I interpreting this right?
DAX broke 7600 support and so far failed in retest from below. http://scharts.co/ZZHZOE
Now around 7550. Target 7500 200 day SMA, and 7000?
Within investor MA uptrend, but trader start of downtrend, so I interpret this as investors should be out, and traders can think about shorting.
Could be similar to 2012

I hadn't looked at the Dax since the weekend, but noticed a similar Stage 3 forming in the FTSE 100 and so did a speculative short in that yesterday just before the close, which is making similar moves to the Dax today as well.

If the Dax can close below the 7500 then I think you could call it as very early Stage 4A, but as you said the 200 day MA is very close which often offers support. The relative performance versus the S&P 500 broke down below the zero line over three weeks ago, and the 30 week MA is flattening. So it looks to be weakening, and so as you said traders could attempt shorting it around here I think as it's forming a potential Stage 3, but would be too early for investors imo, as the investor stop loss should probably be around the 7400 level imo, if it had been kept below the 30 week SMA, but could be under 7500 if the investor had made the decision to move up tightly under the swing low if they felt the rally was getting extended, as it suggests in the book. And so investors following the method would probably be considering exiting some or all of their long position if it does breakdown here.

The initial swing target if it does breakdown into early Stage 4 looks to be around the 7000 level as you said. Attached is the weekly and daily charts to compare with yours.