(2013-04-15, 12:04 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: I've been short since $1534, but alas not weinsteins method I'm afraid but hedging physical. My ISA account is beginning to look very nice and any potential CGT liability for this year alsoWell done, goodtyneguy. It's very smart to catch one of the major moves of 2013.
To put my caution another way, with gold and silver the initial big moves down are emotional panics (as isatrader said), and the big bounces (like Tuesday) as traders take profits seem more suited to the trader method at least. With moves of $70, $80, $100 per day, the stoploss has to be put such a long way away that it feels like a 50-50 gamble day to day.
The question from the investor point of view is to identify that the wider investor, now sitting on a fall of 50% or so from the high, and quite probably now sitting on losses, and enduring an effective "crash" similar to 2001 in tech and 2008 in banks, comes to doubt the case for buying gold. If there is no big move back above 1550 in this week and next, then yes we could get a big grind down over the coming months, with smaller stops, more suited to the Weinstein investor method.
That's how I see it, that moves in gold have to be treated a bit differently from normal stocks.
PS I forgot to say that although Weinstein, as we have discussed it, uses daily and weekly charts, the Friday (US) morning move in gold, down from about 1580 to 1500, shows the value of an intra-day alert to get good entry point.