RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
(2014-05-10, 04:48 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2014-05-10, 03:40 PM)Tryst Wrote: Thanks, isatrader. You can see that when the zero line is crossed it indicators the start (there or there abouts) of a new bull/bear market.
Ok, I can see that these are long term indicators, as they do trigger quite some time after true market bottoms/tops.
In one of the Financial Sense Stan Weinstein interviews (can't remember which one) he states that in March/April 2009 it was clear that a market bottom was in as 'all the ducks was lined up' (to quote his words). What indicators would you say Weinstein uses to highlight potential market bottoms?
I suppose the summation index (NYSI) could be one of these as it could indicate a bullish divergence by putting in a higher low while the indexes still moves lower (but other indicators should confirm a bottom, whatever indicators they are). indicating the breath of the market was strengthening.
He uses his "Weight of Evidence" approach that he talks about in the book, where he gauges the market stage using a combination of over 50 indicators and the actual price action. But the key indicators that he uses is the proprietary S&P Surveys and the Secondary Surveys which he mentions briefly on page 77 of the book, which are the percentage of stocks in Stages 1 & 2. Obviously we don't have access to these, but he has said that the Percentage of Stocks above their 30 Week MA (150 day) charts have a strong correlation of around 75-80% to them, and hence why I show those each week in the market breadth thread and the individual sector charts also.
For more idea of the major breadth indicators he uses reread chapter 8 in the book, which talks about the advance decline line, momentum index, new highs new lows etc.
Thanks. Stan does allude to those proprietary surveys in his interviews on FS. Does he not show them on his Global Trend Alert releases?
I have the book, but I also find this webpage to be quite useful which covers the key indicators from the book.
http://www.alltimehighstocks.com/p/weins...rkets.html