[isatrader]

The last Stage Analysis of US Treasuries was back on 10th March in post#9 here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...198#pid198 when I highlighted that the 10 & 30 Year US Treasuries had made their first continuation moves lower following their Stage 4 breakdowns early in the year. That continuation breakdown failed and marked the swing low for US Treasuries this year, which have since rebounded strongly for the last four weeks, and on Friday broke back above the most recent swing highs and the 30 week MA to move back into Stage 1A.

I noted in post#23 that there was a divergence forming in the cumulative volume at the bottom of the charts, and since then cumulative volume has continued to recover and crossed above it's own MA on the weekly chart this week. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 is also improving again, and so US Treasuries are back in neutral territory in the early part of Stage 1 after a relatively short Stage 4 phase of only three months.

The fact that Treasuries have broken above their recent swing highs is interesting to me, as they have a strong inverse relationship with equities, which haven't broken down yet below their February swing lows yet. And so the question is, are Treasuries acting as a leading indicator of weakness to come in the equity market? Definitely, something to keep an eye on imo.