[MalcolmSm1th]

I was thinking much the same this week as my profits for the year have dropped alarmingly. A month ago i had just touched 20% but now they are at 10%. Still beats the bank but it doesn't reach my target. At least they're up and in this first year I had made a lot of mistakes and at least I have learned from them.

Anywya, the recent theme of what are suggestions of a downturn in the market.

Because of my stops being hit I have only 29% invessted in the market at the moment. Aviva (AV. L) and Accsys (AXS.L)) were my sales last week which has made my wife's ISA account 100% cash now. Aviva went on a nosedive obviously because of the Budget and the announcement that one can look after one's own investments rather than have all the profits in an Annunity go to the insurance company and, hopefully, gets rid of one of the biggest frauds in the financial game.

So I was looking around this weekend for Sectors on the London exchange to invest in. Only four came up with good looking graphs. Financial Services, General Retailers, Support Services and Travel & Leisure. Okay, I admit that the insurance sectors still look good but after the Aviva thing last week I decided that it would be foolish to entertain that sector.

Of these four two of them appear to be interesting for different reasons. First the Support sector. I looked at the larger shares (those with EMS values of over 5k pounds, ie the liquid stocks) and most of those seem to be turning over. Atkins (ATK) may have hit a double top and is turning, Babcock (BAB) has fallen belw the 30 week MA with a large fall last week, Diploma (DPLM) which was kind to me has fallen below the MA and so on. I just feel that this sector is starting to turn.

I have shares, two lumps as it happens, in VP Plc (VP.) and these are going tomorrow as I think that they have run out steam and, as I say, I think that the sector is tired.

The upshot s that I have crossed off this sector even though I do like the look of DCC plc (DCC).

Poping over to the Travel & Leusure sector and there's all sorts of different Groups in here. The Travel part looks to be healthier than some parts of the Lesire for sure. As some of you know I have a strong interest in the horse racing world and so the Gambling sub-sector is interesting here. Look at the bigger quoted bookmakers: Ladbrokes (LAD), PAddy Power (PAP) and William Hill (WMH): all going down. The betting exchange, Betfair (BET) isn't doing well and its bigger rival, BetDaq is owned by Ladbrokes. As it happens I am moving my trade from Betfair to Betdaq slowly as I am getting cheesed off with BF. Some of the casinos and on-line gaming companies are going the same way.

Which brings to me Playtech (PTEC). This has just dropped below the weekly 30MA and is in the same group and the other fallers. Four weeks ago it has had a fall with large volume and then three more losing weeks all at more volume than usual. It is now at a recent resistance level and if it drops further on Monday then I may go short, i.e. lay, this stock.

But what about my longs? When VP goes tomorrow I will be left with only Fisher James (FSJ) which is doing well for me and the price chart is still going well, Circle Oil (COP) is in a 2A stock and Ideagen (IDEA) is looking like a Stage 2 position.

And that's it. My long positions are getting fewer and fewer, i.e. down to three, and I am having doubts about the market at the moment. I see the FTSE rising and nothing happening to my stocks and I so feel that it's starting to froth a little.

I have nine stocks on my shortlist to look at this week to see how things go but I am considering getting more into shorting stuff over the near future.

Apologies for the long message but this just came out in a deluge because I just read above similar to what I have been thinking and I thought that I would share my opnion.

- Malc

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This is the chart of Playtech which I am thinking could be a short



And these are on my shortlist for the longs which I will look at again tomorrow.



- Malc