RE: Market Breadth Update
(2014-03-30, 12:34 PM)pcabc Wrote: Not totally sure what you mean by 'have a plan' other than follow the book. I'm checking my progress daily, and given the larger than usual number of stop losses hit I'm I think I'll more reticent before re-investing the resulting cash. Can't think of another plan except 'sell everything'.
The book provides a lot of the answers, but there's always greys areas as it's not a rigid set of rules and focuses mostly on selling on stop losses and trendline breaks on the individual stocks. For example, if the market is in Stage 3, that doesn't mean sell every long you have as your individual stocks might continue in their Stage 2 advances, but it means the market is in a volatile sideways range, which can still go either way. And so it gives you warning that you should consider taking some profits on stocks you've made good gains on if they look extended and tightening up stop losses, as the stocks that do break down can have sharp declines as people exit a lot quicker than they enter, especially in momentum stocks that have had very strong Stage 2 advances and gotten extended.
So what I mean by have a plan, is follow the books guidance and make sure you know what you should do in the each scenario for your open positions.
A good quote from the book is: "Don't feel you have to be 100 percent invested at all times." i.e. having part of your portfolio in cash is a position too, and so you don't necessarily have to reinvest the cash from stopped out positions straight away, and can just hold on to your strongest positions with tighter stop losses so that you are protected from a Stage 4 breakdown, but can also still participate if it makes a fresh continuation. So by being partially in cash, you can take a step away from the market and watch from the sidelines for a while until the time is right again in the market and you start seeing fresh breakouts or continuations in the new leaders for the next Stage 2 phase.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.