[pcabc]

The prices you have mentioned are different to my two data sources, which are ADVFN and Prorealtime, which have the previous significant weekly low at 1662 on Nov 22nd 2013, which I've marked a horizontal trendline from on the weekly and daily charts attached.

I'm using my own database which gets its data from Yahoo!, Yahoo's charts and also Stockopedia. None of these plot the days range, so I think that is the likely reason for the difference.

The investor stop loss should have been placed below the last significant swing low and the 30 week MA, and so it would have been quite far away initially as the 30 week MA was still down in the 1400s, but as time has gone on the 30 week MA has risen past the 1662 swing low, and so you would have been able to raise your stop right up close to the swing low, and would have given it a little bit of room and so imo it would have been placed below 1650, and possibly a little bit lower due to the 200 day MA being very close to that level, and so it would have just survived this weeks open and low of 1650 by the skin of it's teeth.

I think I was not brave enough originally - I believe I ought to have put the original stop somewhere near 1100 but I put it nearer the MA30. I can see a stop going in in November at the time of the low with a value of about 1480 - but as an investor I don't see another opportunity to raise it unless the late January dip to around 1800 counts as a good time to raise the stop. I think you are saying that is where a stop should go - I think we're agreeing, but you are the experienced one.

Looking at what I actually did I put a stop in mid Feb at 1570 - that does not tie in very well with our conversation above - it is too high for Nov 13. 18 Mar I put one in at 1619. Not quite sure what that was based on - perhaps I was squinting at a small chart late at night. So it looks like I mistakenly failed to recognize the late Jan dip as a place to move the stop up the thirty week MA - or maybe that is just a difference of opinion. However, with such a rapid advance followed by a flattish shape to the chart well above the 30 week MA there is a lot of space to loose much of the profit.

KIE.L moved into Stage 3A last week imo, with the retest of the swing low and break below the 30 week MA. It broke the swing low by a small margin but it rebounded from there at the start of the week and it's 200 day MA which also offered some support, and is now slightly above it. However, there has been a significant decline in it's technical attributes as it went from a score of 8 out of 9 to a 3 out of 9 in a single week, and so is definitely showing the signs of forming a Stage 3 pattern.

I'll need to read up on the scoring system. Certainly the shape of the chart, the approach this week close to the Nov swing low, rang alarm bells for a potential stage 3. However, given my understanding the problem is that I might not go to the stage 3 stopping process until after it has done such a move as over the last few days. Phrased another way - without a lower low or a 'toppy' shape I should not yet be using such an aggressive stopping scheme?

The book states on page 189 that: "...even if the stock slightly penetrates the MA along the way, you can still stay with it. However, this is only true if two important criteria are met. First, the MA must still be rising. And second, the prior correction low must not be violated."

So of those two criteria, only one - the rising 30 week MA - was met in the case of KIE.L, as the swing low was violated at the beginning of this week...

As my data is different to yours I see now why I did not see the penetration of the previous low met and you did.

I hope that helps, and I've just seen that you've done another post while I writing this. Well done on the excellent gains that you've had using the method so far.

Thank you. Appreciated. Unfortunately those are only the highlights as I've been using this method since last summer and some of the funds especially have not done quite as well. My portfolio is nowhere near those values. However, I think time is the magic ingredient to help that. The few losses I have made since reading the book have been small.

Cheers,

Pete