(2014-02-20, 11:07 PM)isatrader Wrote: Nine weeks later it broke down into Stage 4A, after first rallying back up to the declining 30 week MA and rolling over. Now almost a year later it's still in Stage 4 and has formed a much larger head and shoulders top, which if it makes a further Stage 4 continuation breakdown below the major support that's formed, it would move into a more serious Stage 4 decline with no support until around the mid teens, although that's quite old now.
Apologies for being late again, I can't seem to subscribe to the thread so missed this opportunity; but apart from seeing the logic in the answers the question as to whether the sector is in a stage 2 or stage 3 would depend on whether we could have been shorting this
Don't sell in a strong sector are the words
So our analysis has be on the sector chart and as Malcolm says, its stage 2 or a very early stage 3, but there's no indication of a flattening MA to suggest a 3 yet
Would we still be shorting this stock in this case?
On another topic, this is in relation to page 16/17 where he says that the MOST bullish scenario is where a long term trend has been breached to the upside followed within days of breaking the MA
Here is Gold, would this classify as an example? trend line has been going for a year, with numerous touches and MA (weighted) broken immediately
and does anyone actually use this method, or rather wait for a more "classic" basing pattern? Interestingly the MA on the breakout turns up immediately.
There is of course the added benefit of a large double bottom playing out after 1400 of course