RE: Beginners Questions
(2014-02-19, 12:09 AM)malaguti Wrote: I seem to have a different answer to the others.
1)I still think this is in stage 1. I see this as a basing pattern looking like a double bottom playing out and would need to get past the 5 stage before considering a stage 2.
2) The MA looks flat rather than rising, although there is a tiny lip which isn't convincing enough to me
3) Volume increasing on the potential breakout..needs to get past 5 before a confirmed stage 2
4) relative performance is above the zero line
5) the nearest is at 5, to mark stage 2 and then again at 9
6) the sector and market charts are in alignment but the sector isn't convincing to be honest so I would buy only if I was convinced it had entered into stage 2 bearing in mind resistance is 2.5 times away from potential Reward:risk so I'd take some profit at 9
I'd look at others though, and I'd really want to see what the cloud pattern was like
Ok I sent this I see after the answers came out..man that is really bad..so can't even get the beginner questions right, WITH the damn answers !
That last bit made me laugh. Don't worry, I would have said similar when I was first learning the method and will help you learn, which is why I choose this example, as the breakout point was fairly good, but it had a few issues that I thought might make it more difficult.
On your first point once it moves into Stage 1 you should adjust your range breakout level to nearest significant weekly swing high above the 30 week MA, so hence why the breakout level changed down and then up again to just over $4 before it finally broke out, as a Stage 1 range evolves over time due to a number of factors like false breakouts like we saw in July on the CSIQ chart, where it produced a squat on the weekly bar and so reset the top of the Stage 1 range. Also, the 30 week simple MA will often be flat or only just turning up on the breakout week, as it's not as sensitive to recent prices as a weighted MA, but the rules are that it should be flattening or rising, so avoid if it's still declining.
On resistance the $5 level from the early 2012 high was fairly technical and a year old, so I wouldn't consider it as significant near term resistance, and the $9 zone was much more significant as had been the bottom area twice in 2010-11, but it was getting older and so the significance fades with time. Plus $9 was over 100% above the level of the chart, and so nothing to worry about imo, as you'd be pretty happy with a 100% gain.
I hope that helps, and I'll try and do some more questions soon of different Stages.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.