RE: Market Breadth Extra
(2014-02-01, 07:35 AM)JimStudent Wrote: Ok, as I am learning to interpret these charts, this is what I see. We know there is a correction underway but because we the percentage of stocks above the 150 day moving average is at 61.93 - there is still health in the bull trend. Things can change and maybe we are near a top but we don't know yet. What am I missing?
You seem to be getting to grips with it. Remember to look at the breadth indicators as a whole, and don't only focus on one, as it's the "Weight of Evidence" approach that Weinstein recommends, and why I show a broad range of measures. So analyze what the majority is saying.
I'd agree with your analysis of the current situation, as although there's short term weakness, the medium term indicators have not yet gone into full bear mode (although this could happen quickly), and as you correctly noted the percentage of stocks above their 150 day moving average is still in the upper half of the range, although has weakened significantly over the last few weeks, so caution is advisable, as well as the long term Bullish Percent Index moving to Bear Confirmed this week, which is a sign to be more defensive, as to use an American football analogy, the market now has the ball in it's own half of the field and is trying to score against you. So you need to put your defensive team on the pitch to protect the gains you've made. Which back in the real world means being cautious, raising cash levels, focusing on quality, tightening stop losses etc. i.e. defensive strategies that will protect you in case it does turn into a bigger downturn, but will still keep you in the game if it's not and turns out to be another pullback in this long Stage 2 advance.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.