RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
(2014-01-05, 08:16 PM)liquidminded Wrote: One thing I am trying to get better at is judging near term resistance. You stated you have been using the Ichimoku clouds. I've never paid that much attention to them as they seemed complicated, but I decided to start looking into them after I read your thread a couple of days ago. Do you use a weekly time scale with the Ichimoku, or daily, or both?
I have been looking at my recent big winners (AKS, TNK, AMRS for example), they broke out through the cloud while the leading span A was still below the leading span B line (on a weekly chart though). RS, volume met the requirements. The daily chart showed the A-line crossing back and forth with the B-line.. I am also seeing that the heavier or thicker the cloud is above the current price, and the farther it is above the current price, then you should avoid it due to loads of near term resistance. What's your stance and interpretation of the cloud? Am I seeing this right?
Hi Dan, welcome to the site and thanks for posting for the first time.
With regards to using the Ichimoku cloud to gauge resistance, I only look at the weekly cloud for this, as weekly is the time frame that the Stage of the stock is determined from. I'm using the cloud in it's most basic form, and turning off all of the other bits as I'm simply using it as a visual guide to where there is potential resistance.
In terms of reading the cloud, you seem to have the right idea imo, as the thicker it is, the stronger resistance it is for a stock to work through, but it doesn't mean that the stock won't go through it, it's just a potential area of resistance. So I don't think you should get caught up in all the intricacies of Ichmoku, as it's a complex system. I'd suggest just looking at the weekly cloud, it thickness and it's relationship with the price as it's a useful visual filter when scanning through the weekly charts and can help you avoid getting into stocks too early.
Personally I'm mainly looking for stocks that have already cleared the top of the weekly cloud when they break out into Stage 2, but I did highlight all three of the stocks you mentioned when they moved into Stage 2A in the watchlist thread and noted the resistance as they become better candidates once they clear the cloud imo, which they all did. Here's their current charts.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.