[isatrader]

The 10 Year US Treasuries have finally closed below the horizontal support from the August 2012 low, after moving into Stage 4A at the beginning of this year. So the 10 Year US Treasuries are in a confirmed Stage 4 now imo, with relative performance continuing to weaken below it's Mansfield zero line. The 30 week MA is declining, and has been since mid December, and cumulative volume is on a sell signal and declining.

The initial swing target is 127.80 which would see it test the lower horizontal support from the late 2011 Stage 3 range. if that fails to hold then the next support would be at 125. Below is the marked up chart.

US 10 Year Treasuries (TY) chart

   

After grinding slowly lower for last nine weeks since the Stage 4 breakdown, the 30 Year Treasuries have made their first continuation move lower. Like the 10 Year Treasuries the 30 week MA is declining, and relative performance is continuing to weaken below it's zero line. And cumulative volume continues to decline also.

The swing target is still 136.69, which like the 10 Year Treasuries would see the 30 Year Treasuries test the bottom of the previous Stage 3 range. A break of which could see a potential move down to the next support at 131. Below is the marked up chart.

US 30 Year Treasuries (US) chart

   

US Treasuries have a largely inverse relationship with US Equities, and so these moves are very bullish for the stock market which also broke out this week to the upside, and hence gives some confirmation to these Stage 4 breakdowns in the Treasuries and vice versa in the stocks.