RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Possible general strengthening of breadth, relative strength comparisons?
I've seem some signs, but there is a contradiction.
S&P600 versus S&P500 (market cap weighted):
The S&P600, small-cap, has plunged in recent months against the S&P500, large caps. But that has just leveled off. So the small caps were weaker than the large caps, but now they are showing similar relative strength.
S&P500, market cap weighted versus S&P500, equal weighted:
This time the S&P500 is compared against an equal weight version of it. So, if only the largest market cap constituents are moving the index up then the market cap weighted version should lead the equal weighted version - if the broad market, the largest and smaller constituents should move together meaning that the relative strength plot should flatten. After a strong rise, which will be due to the large caps, it has leveled off over the last six weeks.
Russell 1000 Equal weight versus Russell 1000:
This is where I am confused. The above indicate a broad strengthening in market breadth with small caps gaining strength compared to large caps. However, here we have the Russell 1000 Equal Weight plotted against the Russell 1000 (which is market cap based). The equal weighted is stronger then weekend over the last month. So the small caps weaken having been stronger. This is the opposite behaviors to the previous comparisons. Perhaps I've got the two indices back to front when calculating the relative strength, but I cannot see it.
Still, better to be honest and post the data 'warts and all' than cherry pick the charts that fit a theory.