RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Breadth based on Mansfield Relative Strength - Relative Strength Rising or Falling
I attach a new calculation, the percentage of stocks with the Mansfield Relative Strength rising or falling compared to the index. This is plot [4] in the attached chart. The definition of rising or falling is whether the 50 day simple moving average of the Relative Strength is rising or falling. I tried it first with a 5 day MA, which I had already calculated, but that fluctuated much faster then the Percentage of Stocks with their Mansfield RS above zero and % Stocks with the Mansfield Zero Line rising.
I've only calculated this for a year, I need to extend the period I do not think a one year sample is sufficient to see if this indicator is of value. I think at the moment the best I can tell is that it is best read in conjunction with other to RS based indicators. I could perhaps try variants on 20, 50 and 150 day periods to compare them, at probably a relatively small time and complexity disadvantage. The question is, where do I stop?
Looking at this specific chart I'm not sure the RS rising tells us much when the S&P500 is in Stage 4. However, from November 2022 it is positive alongside the % Mansfield RS above Zero [2] and Mansfield RS Zero Line Rising [3]. It has an even more dramatic drop below 50% in March 2023. Along with the other indicators this implies that only the large caps are holding the index up.