RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions
(2022-12-19, 11:20 PM)ferran Wrote: Hi David,
I'd really be interested to hear *how* you enter trades (and manage risk). Do you have any examples to share? Possibly you could spend some time on that in one of the future videos.
The weekly videos are really useful to build up a watchlist, but when waiting for breakouts, I'm usually too late and am worried about a fallback.
I thought about setting a buy limit order, but there I run the risk of a false breakout and I also cannot check the daily volume.
An example to make it more concrete; I'm an investor atm, so typically scan for weekly chart breakouts. I had $PDD on my watchlist. In the week of Nov 28th, the stock broke out of the range and gapped up. The weekly close was ±14% above the breakout level, so I don't want to chase it and risk a significant pullback. How would you practically enter such a stock? If you miss the initial move, how to still enter?
Hi ferran, I've covered it in many of the previous videos and posts over the years, but with the videos it's always been mixed in with the other content. So, I'll try and do some separate videos in the coming months.
For me the market environment is the key factor, and I cover this each weekend in the regular Market Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined blog posts that I do each Saturday for the members, as depending on the market environment position that will determine whether I'm interested in playing Defense or Offense, and the overall strategy, as the market breadth position via the weight of evidence is crucial to my process. As if the environment is on Difficult environment status (which it was for 80% of 2022) then breakouts are avoided, and the focus is more on earlier Wyckoff entry zones within Phase C and D of Stage 1 base structures, and on the secondary Stage Analysis entry zone after a Stage 2 breakout on what is known as the Backup entry point in the Wyckoff method also.
I prefer to buy breakouts in a different way, as I don't actually buy breakouts, but instead use partial positions to start accumulating before a breakout if the structure is developing the right characteristics, and then add after the breakout to get up to a full position size. If done right then your average price is then often around the breakout price or less, and helps to mitigate risk as you are using smaller position sizes and so stop outs are less significant. Obviously this is my own style developed by merging the Stage Analysis and Wyckoff methods, so you won't find it any of the books. But part of trading is developing your own style, so it will be different for you and everyone else. But chasing breakouts in a poor market environment is a bad strategy, so you have to have different tools for different environments. As No. 1 rule is consider your risk first.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.