[pcabc]

S&P500 v Russell 3000

A bit more discussion compared to my previous post.

Looking at the index 'price' [1] the black and blue lines, the most recent low is only slightly lower than the previous one.  A long way from the black trend line.  This makes me feel like things could be strengthening.  But the red trendline needs to be broken, and even if that happens on the next high, and there is no reason why it should, then that will be in a few weeks time, if any.  The black trend line may still be valid, that would be a massive drop in the index.

Generally we are two weeks into a rally from the bottom, so indicators are generally doing positive things.  The Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] look like they will near/test the zero line shortly.  THe % stocks above 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs are all moving up [11-13] as is the Silver Cross Index [14].  Note however that we were in a similar position several months back before the most recent high and things have dropped back from their to a new low.  So no guarantees.

This could be signs of a start of Stage 1 in the index, but it may well not be and continue down in Stage 4.