[pcabc]

Commodities, breadth?

I have a GBP denominated commodities ETF in my ISA which seems to be going sideways, so I thought I'd take a look at the market breadth of commodities.  I've calculated the market breadth on a pool of commodities, excluding oil and precious metals, which seem to be significant enough to track separately.
   

The index itself [1] is making a bull flag / pennant shape.  This is not exactly what my poision in BOCG.L is doing, it does not have the same tightening of volatility, it is just going sideways:
   

However, we need to note most commodity data is priced in USD, the USD dollar index has fallen and the pound has strengthened against the dollar.  Do, if commodities are priced in USD and their price remains unchanged and the pound rises against the dollar we would expect BCOG.L to fall:
       

So, if GBP / USD was fixed BCOG.L would probally be rising.

Lets look at the market breadth again.  New highs minus New lows are lower than they have been [3].  Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] are both above zero but have been falling.  The % stocks above the 50 and 200 day EMAs have dipped in the last week or two but recovered somewhat.  On a more negative note the Silver Cross Index (% of 'stocks' with a 20 day EMA over a 50 day EMA are falling but in the last week or two have stabilized just above 50% and the Gold Cross Index has turned down a little.  Looking at my agregate scoring system [B, grey] the score has been falling. 

In summary, breadth of the commodities (ex precious metals and oil & gas producers) appears to have weakened somewhat.  If that means inflation is falling that is good for everyone.  Something to watch.