[isatrader]

As time allows David - this really is a long term/learning question, not so much about the short position on Ally but more about whether my interpretations of the price action are on the right track. I also wonder if the pattern I'm looking at for Ally is not so much a classic Wyckoff distribution pattern so much as perhaps an assortment of accumulation features that simply failed (or whether that is a distinction without a difference). Looking forward to the Sunday video. -Charlie

Hi Charlie,

I've marked up the daily chart with my interpretation the range, which I would also see as a distributional structure. But I've marked the entire range for your reference, which I think would be a down sloping structure (which is a sign of weakness in itself).

For the P&F count from the more local base structure that you have identified I count 8 columns from the 49 LPS to the Local Selling Climax. Therefore 8 x 1 x 3 = $24

49 - (24/2) = 37 

I divided count by 2, as on the downside I think you halve the the result compared to upside projections. But would need to refresh my memory, as been a while since I've done a downside projection.

A more conservative count would be using the higher level LPSY I've marked which has. count of 6 columns, and hence 6 x 1 x 3 = $18

49 - (18/2) = 40

So that would be the projection for Segment A, but I'd personally take the broader segment from the higher LPSY for the whole range if considering a larger Stage 4 decline. So would be 19 columns, hence 19 x 1 x 3 = $57

UTAD 55 - (57/2) = 26.5
LPSY 53 - (57/2) = 24.5

But you should always consider the near term target levels first as you have done.

In terms of what charts you should use. The daily chart with a user defined box is best I find for longer counts on sizeable bases. Not the weekly.

For very short term. The 60 minute chart is more useful.

Use the ATR to work the best box size to use in your user defined setting. But always start with the traditional and adjust, which will take some practice.