[pcabc]

I think the last two year period in the breadth resembles the 2003/2004 and 2009/2010 periods. So I'm judging it compared to the 2004 and 2010 data. Hence we are currently lower than 2010 correction in the 200 day MA, but still above the 2004 level. So my working theory is that we are near to a swing low, but could get a lot more painful yet, that then could give us a modest run for 6 months or so.

It would be very good if you are right, here's hoping.  My more agressive approach to breadth has kept me out of equities for quite a while.  Pivoting to bond ETFs in that account whist I'm waiting for breadth to improve has done me no favors though.

Also worth adding, its a shame that the last 10 minutes of Googling has not found a simple CSV or text format list of NASDAQ composite components - so its hard for my to run my breadth calcs on that.  Breadth of the other index components is does not exactly follow the NASDAQ composite at the moment, the picture is a bit rosier.