RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions
(2020-08-27, 02:13 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-08-27, 01:28 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Hi Isa,
I am touching base about RY which you commented on twitter in a reply to my post to you.
You noted a week back it is early stage 1 but I was wondering if it could break above the 2020 high of 80.74 and still not show a buy trigger based on stage analysis unless priceĀ breaks above the RS line and big volume comes in?
I also want to point out that the site nextbigtrade screener shows RY is in stage 2 for 4 weeks now so clearly that is not correct so I am following your methodology to determine entries which is why RY is still not a buy.
Thanks for your thoughts,
Ian
It has moved into Stage 2A, with last weeks close the confirming week above the Stage 1 pivot high. The nextbigtrade screener uses an automated approach to defining the stages. So is often a bit out in terms of the Stages and the exact entry points, but is a good rough approximation. But you have to check the charts visually yourself to refine the results, as often it will highlight stocks that would be considered still in Stage 1 as in Stage 2. But can be a good starting point none the less.
On RY the Stage 1 base was very short, and although it's broken out into Stage 2, it still remains below near term resistance. Plus volume on the breakout and following has been well below average, and the RS versus the S&P 500 is improving, but is still below a declining "zero line". So it looks like the breakout has been driven by the move in the market and not some thing in the stock itself, as you would see more volume coming in.
So although it's in early Stage 2A, it remains a lower quality candidate in terms of the methods requirements. As remember the opportunity costs that Stan talks about in the book.
Try not to focus on stocks that you want to buy, but instead on stocks that are giving you reasons to buy them, by meeting the various requirements of the method including being in a strong group, which is often missed out by most beginners. But is a crucial part of the method for finding the strongest stocks at the ideal entry points.
Note: A quick tip if you are using stockcharts is to look at the SCTR rating of the stock, which is their way o9f tracking relative strength versus the market. If it's not a 85 or greater, then it's likely not strong enough to consider.
Thank you Isa for explaining things and the sctr tip. Very helpful.
I assume you will let everyone know when it is time to enter miners again as I notice your watchlist has not included any for a while now.
Ian