[marry123]

Every time when more than 15% of stocks were above their 200 MA, after first falling below, on the weekly the bottom was in. It looks to me we have made bottom and may not revisit unless I am reading this incorrectly. Maybe someone else can find a flaw in my interpretation.

Personally I would suggest using closing data only on the percentage of stocks, as it filters out the noise of brief spikes into the lower zone. I've used the same chart as yours which is the S&P 100 percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA. Which is mega caps only and a very small sample of the market.

This is why I show both the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA in my videos, as they cover around 5000+ stocks, and hence the majority of the US market. Which is about 50+ times the size of what the S&P 100 covers. So I'd recommend looking at those two when doing breadth work. As the bigger the sample size the better.

As far as what you suggested. It looks like there's only three periods when stocks have closed below the 15% level in the S&P 100 during that Stage 4 decline including this one and then moved above it for the first time. So August 2002, January 2008, and April 2020. So neither of the previous two were the bottom.

I've attached the full chart and individual charts below of what they looked like at the time that the first moved back above 15%.

This is why the market breadth signals are generated using point and figure double bottom breakouts as they filter out the noise. See https://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/...ators.html for the signals

Thanks for this Isla, this is most helpful having your expert eye point out faults in my assumptions/conclusions.