[pcabc]

Hi pcabc, Thanks for sharing this, looks very interesting your market gauge. Have you tested what happens during 2008 and did your gauges warn you to get out before this drop this year? 

I have been busy creating one for the South African market (JSE) but still not completey done.

Thank you.  A word of warning though, I've been producing interesting looking tools but I'm finding it harder to make money.  I have some successful periods and other periods where things grind down - so the usefulness is an interesting question. 

Rather than plot a snapshot on one date I have plotted, based on NYSE breadth data, the S&P500 for a five year period running up to the 2008 crash, see below.   However, really you don't need the breadth indicators to see that the S&P500 has entered stage 4 just before the beginning of 2008.  The 150 day SMA is sloping down, it has lower highs and lower lows. 

My aggregate indicator whipsaws you out in mid 2006.  However, it is then generally positive up until mid 2007.  It flashes posative for, say, a month to six weeks in autumn 2017 before some sell and danger signals and apart from a few positive flickers as the S&P500 pulls up toward the 150 day MA it is in sell / danger right until the crash and beyond for some way. 

The advance decline line had started downward  mid 2017 and the advancing / declining volume lagged behind it somewhat but did similar.    Weinstein's momentum was sloping down at the same time and crossed zero at the beginning of 2018.  The percentage of stocks above the 200 day EMA seemed to start a slow decline from spring 2017.  There is a little danger with this indication as this particular line will be from a very limited set of data.

The key point from this is that there was a long slow market stage 4 well before the late 2008 crash.