RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
A major part of the Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis method is finding stocks that are showing the best relative strength versus the market.
This is especially important to start thinking about when the market indexes are in Stage 4 like they are currently, as the stocks showing the best relative strength during a market Stage 4 will often become the new leaders when the market eventually finds it's bottom. As while the indexes bounce around their lows, these new leaders will be breaking out into Stage 2 and to new highs.
The indexes lag individual stocks, as they are just an average of the stocks within them. And so contrary to what you might believe about the method. In order to get into those new leaders. We'll need to start dipping our toes into some A+ looking Stage 2A breakouts when the market are still in late Stage 4 or starting to show signs of a Stage 1 base forming.
This is particularly difficult to get right, but we should start to get some clues from the various market breadth indicators when the time is right. Which may be soon, or it may be a long while away yet.
But in the mean time I wanted to start a discussion to get people thinking and looking where the relative strength is occurring and also sector themes that we think might emerge from this crisis as the big winners and become the new leaders. For example technology stocks that enable people to work remotely have been getting traction so far. Also, supermarkets shelves are forever empty; online media providers are likely getting many more signups etc.
So where are the strongest themes going to be once this crisis is over? Or if you like shorting during a Stage 4 bear market, then what sectors are going to suffer the most in a prolonged Stage 4?
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.