[malaguti]

Hi ISA, at what point would you have said, the move from stage 2 to 4 would be
would you say it was a certain percentage below the 30sma/200 day? if so, what percentage would you give..
i ask only in that its a good barometer for potentially automating this scenario and being able to quantify this measure would be extremely useful
cheers

Generally I use the Weight of Evidence to try to determine the market stages as the indexes tend to lag. Primarily the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite Percentage of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average is my main guide. Which is the 30 week moving average proxy.

I combine this with the major sectors with my sector breadth visual diagram which has a scale up the side. 

I take the average percentage from all of them, and then use the following scale:

Stage 1 & 3 are generally in the 40-60% range
Stage 2 is above 60%
Stage 4 is below 40%

See my sector breadth visual from the weekend of the 28th February and the current one

Perfect, love that answer! Thank you

whats your take on individual stocks..take my recent investment SSON
there is no doubt it missed the transition from 2 to 3. there was a stop loss which got hit at 1258, but from a stage analysis. where would we have said we're possibly at 4?
I'm wondering in this example, we have 2 recent stop losses (1239) being taken out. thats possibly a good starting point
what do you think?