[isatrader]

Hi ISA, at what point would you have said, the move from stage 2 to 4 would be
would you say it was a certain percentage below the 30sma/200 day? if so, what percentage would you give..
i ask only in that its a good barometer for potentially automating this scenario and being able to quantify this measure would be extremely useful
cheers

Generally I use the Weight of Evidence to try to determine the market stages as the indexes tend to lag. Primarily the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite Percentage of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average is my main guide. Which is the 30 week moving average proxy.

I combine this with the major sectors with my sector breadth visual diagram which has a scale up the side. 

I take the average percentage from all of them, and then use the following scale:

Stage 1 & 3 are generally in the 40-60% range
Stage 2 is above 60%
Stage 4 is below 40%

This was a major part of the reason that I was suggesting a short term top in early February as the average was in the 50%-60% range, while the market was attempting to make new highs, and hence should have been in the high 60% to 70% range at least, which is normal in a strong bull advance.

See my sector breadth visual from the weekend of the 28th February and the current one