RE: US Stock Market Breadth – Quickest 10% Decline From an All-Time High in History
(2020-03-01, 01:50 PM)malaguti Wrote: This is a plus for the breadth calculations, that we had early advance of this
and it would be amazing if this site was used to highlight the fact and showcase weinsteins work
one of the problems we have is so many breadth "charts" that people post, its actually hard to see where it was a bearish signal. as nobody actually says so. we just keep posting charts, more charts..what do all these charts mean?
rather than having to refer to a definition, or refer to someone else's blog..here's my breadth charts and now come to my site, if we could just summarise
"one source of the truth" as it were
i can see a post of the 23.02 but it seems to give a very mixed picture
You could give a subscription based service. probably colour coded for idiots like me.
I have been thinking along the same lines recently with regards to the amount of charts, which is why you may have noticed since the start the year that I've started posting less charts, and instead having been doing more of a weekly video roundup with some commentary of what I'm looking at. As hopefully this will provide more value for people viewing the site as it gives me a chance to explain in detail what I'm looking at.
The market breadth is excellent at helping with market timing, but it is quite subjective and open to interpretation, as different breadth indicators can be telling a different story to each other. So that is why I favour the weight of evidence approach advocated in Weinstein's book, as it gives you a combined result, which helps to filter the noise, and then you can determine which strategy you should be using.
Thomas Dorsey has done some great work on this area, and he uses an American football analogy for the Bullish Percent Chart and Moving Average Breadth, converting the 0-100% range to the American football field zones. i.e. you should be using a different playbook / strategy for when the breadth is in the different zones. So for example when the breadth is still rising above 70% you should add defensive stable positions. But when it's falling and above 70% you should be on Aggressive Defence, and Decreasing Volatility, and Raising Cash Levels etc (see attached Bullish Percent playbook).
So I use a similar approach, but based on the entirety of the market breadth charts that I follow to determine which playbook I should be using. Defensive Strategies, or Offensive Strategies.
To your last point. I don't think I'll be doing a subscription service. As I'm simply not qualified to tell other people what to do. As I make far too many mistakes still myself, and wouldn't want to be responsible for other peoples money. But I'm happy to share my thoughts on the site, and highlight what I'm doing personally. And will try to go into more detail to help people understand what I'm posting.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.