RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion
(2019-07-07, 09:07 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: I was wondering how BLDP may be a buy candidate from your scan given it is about 30% above the 30 ema? I notice many others you show from your scan on various days seem to be very extended from the 30 ema so just wondering if I am missing something?
The daily watchlist that I do is not necessarily showing stocks at a buy point. The majority are not when they are posted. However, they are showing characteristics that I look for in the method and may be near to a potential buy point, or have recently passed a buy point and only come on to the radar at a higher level due to the volume coming in as a stock has broken out. This doesn't mean that there won't be other chances to enter if a stock continues to show what I look for. So how I use the watchlist is to set alerts in the stocks in my trading software at the correct buy points once the stocks come onto my radar, which maybe months away still. Personally I'm always looking for a Volatility Contraction Pattern  (VCP) these days - read Mark Minervini's excellent books, which expands on the Stage Analysis trader method, as I believe it's essential in managing risk and still getting high returns.
With regards to BLDP. The 30 week MA isn't the only MA to consider, as with the Stage Analysis Trader method the 10 week or 50 day MA is more important for entries and exits, as you rarely get near to the 30 week MA. I'm also a big believer that percentage moves are mostly irrelevant, as every stock has it's own unique volatility i.e a small cap might move 10% a week on average whereas a very large cap stock might only move 2% on average. BLDP for example has an 8.7% a week range currently, whereas AAPL has a 4.4% a week range (which is quite high for a stock like Apple, but shows how volatile it's been over the last year even in the large caps). So I prefer to use the Average True Range (ATR) to judge if a stock is extended at the entry point and for position sizing to equalize this disparity. I use the 52 week ATR (others prefer to use a much shorter time frame). But for me when using a weekly chart, I want to know what a stocks average weekly trading range has been over the last year. So the 52 week ATR suits me best. I use 2 x the 52 week ATR as my maximum risk from years of trial and error. To calculate that, I'll subtract 2 x the 52 week ATR from the entry point price. Then if that figure is below the most recent swing low and also the 50 day MA (or 10 week MA) then it's within my risk tolerance and hence not extended from normal weekly range.
BLDP is near a potential early Stage 2 continuation buy point at 4.28, and the 52 week ATR is 0.369. So therefore, 4.28 - (0.369 x 2) = 3.542 max risk. The 50 day MA is at 3.75 and the most recent swing low is at 3.44. So, currently the buy point would violate my risk tolerance, as the stop loss would have to be more than 2x the 52 week ATR to put it below the 50 day MA and the most recent support. However, the move up since mid June has been sharp, and so the current buy point also wouldn't meet my requirements, as I look for volatility contractions before the breakout point. So I'd want to see it consolidate around the current level with a shallower pullback than the June pullback was. i.e. the volatility contraction and on light volume during the consolidation. Then it would be more interesting, as would have a lower risk setup. But currently, as I said, it breaks my rules. So is on the watchlist so I can keep an eye on it incase it ever meets the above criteria. Most stocks don't. But that's the point of the watchlist.
I hope that helps.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.