RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
(2018-10-24, 09:46 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2018-10-24, 09:27 PM)gbarbs Wrote: I read SA some time after the 2009 bottom and since then, I don't recall the Chapter 8 indicators being so decidedly negative. Looks like nearly all boxes are checked and it's time to tighten things up and look for shorts.  The MI has not crossed 0 yet but is headed there and has a strong divergence. The Dow feels like its about to fall off a cliff, if it already hasn't.
Not seeing any panic yet, so think that might start to set in and we could get the flush for a short term bottom, and then a volatile relief rally, before the market makes any firm decisions on the general trend direction it wants to take. Personally, I've been waiting for this for ages, as the best time to buy is always when all the time scales of the market breadth indicators are recovering from the bottom zones, which they are only just reaching, and that generally only happens once every 2 or 3 years or so. So I'm going to be watching the breadth closely, but doubt I'll be doing any shorting personally, as I've never been able to well. So if start saying I'm going to then that's definitely a sign that it's a bottom!
Haha. I will add to my signals. #9 - When ISA starts posting short opps, start looking for stage 2 breakouts.
I am sitting all in cash right now.  I may look for a small opportunity to buy a put if it pulls up some but otherwise am not shorting either. Just saving cash and sitting on the side to see what happens. Its never been more clear to me that this is turning so am very interested to see what happens over the next few months.
One of the more subjective signals is the news, and I have noticed a lot of stories saying this is a pullback in a bull market, talking about the volality being typical around mid term elections. Friends talking about the market and how theyve made money. Economy firing on all cylinders. There was one article that said 15 of 18 bear market warnings triggered in the headline, but when you read the article it was filled with commentary explaining it away.