RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
My pleasure. As mentioned by Weinstein in the Technically Speaking ITW (another hugely valuable item from this forum!), the two indicators he would bring with him on a desert island (but to what avail, if you're on a desert island anyway??) are the ADLine and the Nyse Survey. So I'm VERY grateful to you that you publicly display your huge work on the survey every week, that's an amazing feat.
Through your methodology do you think it will ever be possible to potentially extend further back in the past the survey, or is it impossible to do or to time-consuming. The great benefeit I would see in that is that we would be able to backtest how pertinent the survey is to identifying major crises in the markets? (yes, I know I'm a dreamer, but I would love to be able to do this
I did this job of looking back for all the indicators that SW puts forth (in his book and also in the TS ITW) and which can be had from stockcharts and it gives huge comfort that all MAJOR downturns in the market (ie those that smash your portfolio big time and take a long time for it to recover) can be "foreseen" by a major divergence (as he says 3 to 4 months (TS ITW)) b/w ADLine and the indices. Then it's a question of confirmation with what he calls his Momentum Index (200D AD average) that goes below 0, as well as the NHNL. The beauty of his system to assess the market's health is that we have out of sample examples since the publishing of his book, and some significant at that ! (2000/01, 2007/08 - huge krachs with clear divergences beforehand, but also 2011 or 2015 which stopped at max -20% and recovered rapidly). And they work !
So, with the ADLine, and your survey (+all the other indicators he uses in his weight of evidence) we should be able to avoid being crushed when the next big ones shows up. (that's been my main objective since I first discovered about SW). Kudos for you.
(ps: I have mentioned this forum and your survey on a French traders' forum where there is a thread dedicated to Stan Weinstein [and Lars Tvede], so you may get more interest coming your way)